Following strong first-half 2026 results and management’s upward revision to its full-year guidance, we are modestly raising our earnings estimates, according to a Eurobank Equities analysis.
We now forecast revenue of €12.48bn in 2026 (+7.5% year on year) and adjusted EBIT of €1.50bn (+10.5% year on year), up by about 1% and 3%, respectively, from our previous estimates.
A stronger volume base and more stable pricing more than offset the less favourable cost environment in the second half. We continue to expect growth to slow significantly in the second half compared with the first, due to four fewer selling days in the fourth quarter, mid-single-digit inflation in cost of goods sold (COGS) per case, and the maintenance of high marketing investment, the analysts note.
The higher starting base and strong execution in 2026 also lead us to upgrade our 2027-2028 estimates. Management expects full-year 2026 organic revenue growth to be close to the top of the 6%-7% range and organic EBIT growth to reach 8%-10%, compared with 7%-10% previously, following corresponding increases of 9.6% in sales and 15.2% in EBIT in the first half.
The main takeaway is that the second-half slowdown appears to be driven primarily by the timing of sales and higher energy costs, rather than by weaker underlying demand.
At the same time, CCH’s hedging of more than 85% of key commodities and continued flexibility in pricing provide significant protection against persistent inflationary pressures, strengthening our confidence that the full-year targets will be met.
We continue to view the CCBA acquisition as highly attractive strategically, as it significantly increases CCH’s exposure to faster-growing African markets and creates the second-largest bottler by volume in the Coca-Cola system, the analysts add.
Recent regulatory developments in South Africa remove a key hurdle ahead of the expected completion of the transaction by the end of 2026, while integration planning is already under way.
Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation yields a 12-month target price of €61.7 per share, supporting a Buy recommendation. The stock is also among our Top Picks, ahead of expected upgrades to market estimates as CCBA’s contribution is gradually incorporated into consensus analyst forecasts, the analysts conclude.