After a phone call with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that he had “agreed to make more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel available immediately to the American and international markets. Another 500,000 tonnes will be released in November, according to Trump, followed immediately by a further one million tonnes. Diesel prices will fall to unprecedented levels.”
“Russia also intends to deliver three million tonnes of diesel soon, depending on the state of its refineries,” Trump said, without specifying a timeframe. Later, speaking to reporters at the White House, he said the oil deal was a ‘big deal’, for which he wanted to thank Putin.
With sanctions against Russia still in force, the US Treasury issued a special temporary licence allowing the sale, transport, unloading and import of Russian diesel until 7 April 2027.
It is recalled that a few weeks earlier, on 18 September, the US president had signed into law a bill approved by the House of Representatives, giving him expanded powers to impose new sanctions on Russia.
The European Commission took the opposite stance to the US move to open up to Russian diesel, making clear that “the European Union will continue decisively to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels”.
With a delay of a few hours, “Ukraine and Russia agreed to an energy ceasefire”, as Donald Trump called it, he said on social media, without giving further details.
Many analysts had expected a more significant drop in oil prices following the latest developments. But tensions in the Middle East persist — with Houthi attacks on an airport in Saudi Arabia leaving people dead and injured, and attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz — making traders particularly cautious.
It is worth noting that oil opened today’s trading with limited losses, but at the time of writing it had turned higher, with gains of more than 2%.
The Greek stock market began the week with a clear rise, with the main indices on the Athens Exchange (ATHEX) remaining in positive territory throughout. This did not change the broader picture on the market board, however, as the same stocks continue to take turns as the day’s leaders.
It is worth recalling that the General Index had fallen for three consecutive sessions, losing a cumulative 4.73%, while the Banks sector index had also posted three straight declines, with cumulative losses of 9.19%. ATHEX’s total market capitalisation fell by €8bn over the preceding three sessions.
Friday’s close had left the General Index at a new 2.5-month low, with its previous lower close recorded on 29 July at 2,540.06. The Banks sector index was also at a 2.5-month low, with its previous lower close recorded on 29 July at 2,937.64 points.
After that, the “final flourish” came from the closing auction, which took the General Index to its session high, along with eight large-cap stocks.
The durability of the gains and a broadening of investor interest to a larger number of stocks remain the key questions, although the latter is still not evident on the market board.
The latest developments in oil, along with pressure from European countries to impose a tax on profits, renewed pressure on refinery shares (HELPE -0.11%, Motor Oil -1.4%). Both stocks, however, recovered significantly from their intraday lows, with HELPE closing at its session high.
Technically, analysts are focused on the gaps at 2,595–2,605 (resistance) and 2,507–2,495 points (support) for the General Index.
In the optimistic scenario, “there are no fundamental reasons for a sharp correction in domestic bank stocks, provided the wave of risk repricing in the bond market does not turn into a debt crisis”.
More cautious observers, however, say that “none of the fiscal concerns has been resolved, and the rise in equity markets appears increasingly disconnected from the rising cost of long-term borrowing”.
For the Banks sector index, one experienced analyst says: “If the prospect of a further correction returns, we are focusing on the 30-week exponential moving average (2,860 points), from which a strong rebound is highly likely, if not the end of the decline. The aforementioned 2,860 points mark a local peak corresponding to 2,400 points on the General Index, further increasing the chances of a strong rebound.”
It is recalled that Capital Maritime’s public offering will take place from Tuesday 13 October to Thursday 15 October, with the aim of raising up to €300m to expand its fleet. The maximum offer price is €7.68 per new share and the minimum is €7.00.
As noted above, the major European markets were also in positive territory.
In the bond market, the yield on the US two-year note stood at 4.79%, and that on the 10-year note at 5.24%. The 30-year yield was 5.60%. (The US secondary market in cash Treasury bonds is closed for Columbus Day, so no securities are being traded or settled.) The yield on the Greek 10-year bond was 4.412%, while that on the equivalent French bond was 4.86%.
“The recent wave of selling in European bonds shows that investors are increasingly concerned about whether governments can contain public debt. We are not facing a systemic sovereign debt crisis today, but the risks have risen significantly,” the Bundesbank warned.
“Markets are adjusting to an environment of higher interest rates for longer, which affects not only bond prices but also borrowing costs for governments and businesses. Rising US yields are a key benchmark for international markets. When the cost of US government borrowing rises, similar pressure is transmitted to other issuers, which are required to offer even higher yields to attract capital. Competition for funding is also intensifying. Major investments in artificial intelligence, data centres and related infrastructure require substantial capital, at a time when governments continue to finance large deficits and refinance significant volumes of debt. This creates an environment in which financing conditions may tighten, particularly for economies and businesses with lower profit margins or greater credit risk. The global rise in yields is forcing major Japanese institutional investors to liquidate their international positions and repatriate their funds, both to reduce losses in their domestic market and to comply with Japanese Finance Ministry guidance calling for greater exposure to domestic bond issues and less to foreign ones (probably to avoid huge losses from an impending appreciation of the yen).
Against this backdrop, some investors are becoming more sceptical about the creditworthiness of US government bonds, while investors are also showing a broader reluctance to take positions in long-dated bonds.
Particular emphasis is being placed on France, where fiscal imbalances and the political difficulty of implementing corrective measures have made the market more cautious. As one of the eurozone’s largest economies, France cannot be treated like a smaller economy. That is precisely what makes the issue significant: prolonged fiscal uncertainty could affect not only French bonds but perceptions of risk across the European market as a whole,” HellasFin AEPEY said.
Meanwhile, investor attention will turn to the start of third-quarter 2026 earnings announcements, with the focus mainly on the banking sector.
According to Beta Sec., “On Tuesday 13 October, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo will report results, along with healthcare companies Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock follow on Wednesday 14 October, while Thursday 15 October will see the results of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), which are eagerly awaited given the company’s importance to the global semiconductor market and investment in artificial intelligence. The results from the major US banks will provide the first indications of corporate earnings trends, credit growth and loan portfolio quality, at a time of heightened uncertainty over the outlook for the US economy.”
“The worst trading revenues of the year are expected from the major US banks, raising concerns that the sector’s record run in this area may come to an end. The five largest US investment banks — JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America — are expected to report combined revenue of about $38bn from equities and fixed-income trading in the third quarter. Although that forecast represents a 13% increase year on year, it marks a significant decline from the $47bn the banks recorded in the second quarter, a sector record, according to Bloomberg.
“Among the week’s key economic data, September inflation in the US is due on Wednesday, US retail sales on Thursday and September eurozone inflation on Friday,” according to Depolas Investment Services.
According to the economic calendar, the next ECB meetings and announcements are scheduled for 29 October and 17 December 2026.
The corresponding Fed meetings are scheduled for 28 October and 9 December 2026.
The next scheduled monetary policy meetings are on 30 October and 18 December for the BoJ, and 5 November and 17 December for the BoE.
The General Index remained in positive territory throughout, climbing to 2,594.5 points (+1.38%). At 17:00 it stood at 2,589.39 (+1.18%) and ended trading at a new high of 2,594.52 points, up 1.38% on the day.
Turnover came to €364m, of which €67.4m involved pre-arranged transactions (OPTIMA, ALPHA, NBG, PIRAEUS, PPC, SAR, ADMIE, BELA, EUROB). PIRAEUS, ALPHA, PPC and EUROB accounted for 54% of total gross turnover.
Of the total turnover of €364m, €347.4m was in FTSE 25 stocks.