The Interview poll for ‘Political’ highlights four key factors on the road to the ballot box. First, an overwhelming majority of voters are dissatisfied with the opposition, at nearly 61%. Second, third place remains up for grabs between ELAS and PASOK, with neither party’s ratings showing a safe margin in the race for second place.
What influences voters
The other two factors concern the governing camp. Kyriakos Mitsotakis remains by far the preferred choice to govern the country, with 32.2%, while the governing party is 14 percentage points ahead of the party in second place. At the same time, movement to the right of New Democracy involves smaller parties, not the governing camp.
It is worth noting that this is the first Interview poll to measure support for the party being formed, the Alliance of Greeks, which is reportedly backed by Ilias Kasidiaris, who was convicted of participating in a criminal organisation and recently released from prison.
The undecided
Some 46.2%—almost one in two voters—have voted for New Democracy at least once in an election held during the 2019-2024 period. These voters move between New Democracy and the wider centre, while some are now in the grey zone of the undecided: a pool of voters the governing camp is seeking to win back in crucial elections.
Asked how close they feel to politics, 80% say very or fairly close, while 20% say not very close or not at all close.
The next question breaks down those answers by gender and age. Men say they feel very or fairly close at a rate of 87%, while 13% say not very close or not at all close. Among women, 74% say very or fairly close and 26% say not very close or not at all close.
Among those aged 17 to 35, 76% say very or fairly close and 24% not very close or not at all close. In the next age group, 35-55, the figures are 77% and 23%, respectively. In the oldest group, 55-65+, 85% say very or fairly close and 15% not very close or not at all close.
What determines the vote
Asked ‘When it is time to vote, which of the following will have the greatest influence on your choice?’, 30% say the party’s programme, 33% say ideological and party allegiance, 32% say the suitability of the candidate for prime minister, and 5% say something else.
The next question asks ‘When it is time to vote, which of the following will have the greatest influence on your choice? (Breakdown by party preference)’. The answers are:
- The party’s programme: New Democracy 18%, PASOK 49% and ELAS 27%.
- The suitability of the candidate for prime minister: New Democracy 62%, PASOK 12% and ELAS 24%.
- Ideological and party allegiance: New Democracy 19%, PASOK 37% and ELAS 44%.
- Other: New Democracy 1%, PASOK 2% and ELAS 5%.
The opposition’s credibility
Asked ‘Regardless of which party you vote for, which of the following provides the more credible opposition to the government?’, 15% say ELAS, 24% PASOK and 61% neither.
The next question asks, ‘Regardless of which party you vote for, which of the two do you think has’:
- A better programme: 40% say PASOK, 21% ELAS and 39% don’t know/no answer.
- More capable figures: 42% say PASOK, 18% ELAS and 40% don’t know/no answer.
- Stronger leadership: 20% say PASOK, 40% ELAS and 40% don’t know/no answer.
Asked ‘From the 2019 elections through to the 2024 European elections, which of the following parties have you voted for at least once? Select all that apply (multiple answers add up to more than 100%)’, respondents answered:
- New Democracy 46.2%,
- SYRIZA 26%,
- PASOK 18.4%,
- KKE 11.7%,
- Greek Solution 7.5%,
- Niki 5.4%,
- Course of Freedom 4.4%,
- Voice of Reason 3.8%,
- Other 14.9%.
Mitsotakis seen as most capable
Asked ‘Which political leader do you trust most to govern the country?’, 32.2% name Kyriakos Mitsotakis, 20.7% say ‘None’, 13.2% name Alexis Tsipras, 10.6% Nikos Androulakis, 5% Kyriakos Velopoulos, 4.6% Dimitris Koutsoumbas, 3.1% Maria Karystianou, 3% Yanis Varoufakis, 2.3% Afroditi Latinopoulou, 2.2% Zoe Konstantopoulou, 1.9% Stefanos Kasselakis, 0.6% Dimitris Natsios and 0.6% Gavriil Sakellaridis.
Voting intention
Asked ‘If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for?’, 27% say New Democracy, 14.3% ELAS, 13.3% PASOK, 6.9% Greek Solution, 5.6% KKE, 3.9% Hope for Democracy, 3.4% Voice of Reason, 3.4% the Alliance of Greeks, 3% MeRA25, 2.7% Course of Freedom, 2% SYRIZA, 1.8% the Democrats, 0.5% Niki, 0.4% New Left, 3% other, while 8.8% are undecided.
Estimate of the election result
The estimate of the election result puts New Democracy at 29.6%, ELAS at 15.7%, PASOK at 14.6%, Greek Solution at 7.6%, KKE at 6.1%, Hope for Democracy at 4.3%, Voice of Reason at 3.7%, the Alliance of Greeks at 3.7%, MeRA25 at 3.3%, Course of Freedom at 3%, SYRIZA at 2.2%, the Democrats at 2%, Niki at 0.5%, New Left at 0.4% and other parties at 3.3%.