Optima Bank has set a €14.43 target price for Aegean Airlines shares, implying 31.1% upside from current levels, and issued a «buy» recommendation. Its positive assessment is based on resilient passenger traffic, fleet modernisation and improved operating efficiency, despite pressure from higher fuel costs and geopolitical upheaval.
Despite a more challenging operating environment in 2026, passenger traffic rose by about 5% in July and August, while revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) is expected to be slightly higher than last year. However, jet fuel prices have risen to roughly twice their levels at the start of the year, weighing on profitability.
The company has hedged about 65% of its fuel requirements for 2026, and about 15% for 2027. It is also limiting capacity growth, with management forecasting no further expansion in 2027 and leaving open the possibility of reducing frequencies on selected routes.
Fleet renewal is a significant competitive advantage. Aegean has taken delivery of a total of 43 next-generation neo aircraft, and plans to return 10 grounded aircraft to service and take delivery of nine new aircraft by 2028. From 2027, the A321neo LR aircraft will enable it to offer an upgraded business-class product on selected routes.
For the period 2026-2030, Optima Bank forecasts average annual growth of 5.8% in revenue, 6.9% in EBITDA and 14.3% in net profit. Free cash flow after leases is expected to average €150 million a year, while the estimated payout per share for 2026 is €0.68.