The International Monetary Fund forecasts in its World Economic Outlook Database that Greece’s public debt will fall to 136% of GDP in 2026 from 146.6% last year, and decline further to 128.7% in 2027 and 111.1% in 2031.
Based on the Fund’s figures, Greece’s debt will be lower this year than Italy’s (137.9% of GDP), the highest in the eurozone, while by 2031 it will also be lower than the debt of France (which is expected to rise gradually to 123.6%) and Belgium (122.1%).
Greece’s rapid debt reduction will be supported by primary surpluses, which are expected to decline gradually but remain above 2%. Specifically, the primary surplus is forecast at 3.4% this year, compared with 4.9% in 2025, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2031. The overall fiscal balance, which includes interest payments on debt, is forecast to post a surplus of 0.3% this year, down from a surplus of 1.7% in 2025. A deficit of 0.6% is forecast for 2027 and one of about 1% for 2031.
Government revenue is estimated at 50% of GDP this year, roughly the same as last year, before falling to 48.6% in 2027 and 48% in 2031. Public spending will rise to 49.7% this year from 48.3% last year, but is expected to fall to 49.3% in 2027 and close to 49% in 2031.
In its report on the fiscal outlook (Fiscal Monitor Blog), the IMF stresses that the high debt of large advanced economies such as the US is the main reason bond yields are rising, and urges these countries to take urgent action to put their debt on a sustainable path and limit its impact on the rest of the world.