The latest political landscape, including voting-intention trends, which parties are on course to enter parliament and voters’ main concerns about the cost of living and heating, is captured in a new poll by Alco for flash.gr.
Voting intention
Among valid votes, New Democracy retains a clear lead over its political rivals, with 23.8%, although it is down half a percentage point from the previous poll by the same firm. ELAS remains in second place on 13.8%, but is also down, by 0.6 percentage points, from the previous poll. PASOK remains in third place on 11.2%, unchanged from the previous poll, followed by the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) on 7.1%, Greek Solution on 5.6%, Course of Freedom on 3.5%, Hope for Democracy on 3% and the Alliance of Greeks — the party that convicted former MP Ilias Kasidiaris said he supports — on 4%.
Parties including MERA25 on 2.4%, SYRIZA on 1.9%, NIKI on 1.8%, Voice of Reason on 1.5% and the Democrats on 0.7% would fail to enter parliament, while the share of undecided voters remains high, at 15.7%. The number of parties that ultimately make it into parliament is crucial to the threshold for a single-party majority: the higher the share of votes won by parties that fail to enter parliament, the lower the threshold for the leading party to secure a majority.
Samaras’s party
A separate question asked about the potential appeal of a possible new party led by former prime minister Antonis Samaras. A total of 10% say they would be quite or very likely to vote for it, down one percentage point from the same firm’s previous poll last June. By contrast, 74% say they would not vote for it at all.
New Democracy’s voter retention
The share secured by the leading party, which in polls so far has been New Democracy, is equally crucial to its chances of winning an outright majority. According to the latest poll, support among the governing party’s core voters stands at 60%. The share of New Democracy voters who have moved into the undecided camp is 21.9%, while 7.5% say they will vote for another party. Notably, a sizeable share of that 7.5% say they will vote for a possible new party led by former prime minister Antonis Samaras.
The choice between political change and stability
23% say they favour continuity, while 63% prefer political change; 14% say they do not know or decline to answer. The challenge for Kyriakos Mitsotakis and New Democracy is to win back as many as possible of that 14% to the party’s camp, boosting the governing party’s support.
Another key question is how best to safeguard economic stability: through a single-party majority government or a coalition. Some 48% say a coalition government would be best, while 34% believe a single-party majority government would better serve that goal.
The economy, the cost of living and heating costs
The high cost of living remains the biggest headache for Greek households and businesses, also because of the two active fronts in Eastern Europe and the Persian Gulf.
As the country approaches what looks set to be a very difficult winter, 62% of respondents fear serious difficulties in meeting heating costs, while 33% expect to face the same difficulties as last winter.
An overwhelming 85% say high prices remain undiminished, while only 10% say they see prices easing.