Some things are unforgettable.In April 2022, if memory serves, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I went to buy gyros from a shop in the area where I live. To my surprise, I found that the price had risen by 30–40 cents and was now more than €3 each.
I asked why, and the person at the till said the increase was due to higher energy prices and staff wages (I assume the minimum wage).
A few months later, a business-owner friend told me that some corn oil traders had started raising their prices, citing shortages caused by the war in Ukraine. He clarified that there was no shortage; they were taking advantage of the circumstances to raise prices and widen their profit margins. This stopped after the Development Ministry took action. If memory serves, it asked them to record and report their stocks at regular intervals.
We have mentioned these two incidents for two reasons. First, they concern two different sectors—services and food—whose players share the same mindset: invoking circumstances to widen their profit margins, whether or not this is justified.
Second, services and food, together with energy, made the largest contributions to the rise in Greek inflation from March 2026 to September, at about 55%, 33% and 33%, respectively. Over this period, the average price level in Greece was about 4% higher than in the same period of 2025, according to Eurobank.
It is worth recalling that Greek inflation reached 5.1% year on year in September, compared with 3.8% in the eurozone, based on the harmonised index of consumer prices, according to Eurostat estimates.
The five largest year-on-year price rises were in natural gas, up 55.2%; heating oil, up 53.2%; diesel, up 38.8%; and petrol, up 22.5%, according to ELSTAT. The agency said national inflation rose to 5% year on year in September.
Given these figures, and knowing how directly energy affects Greek inflation, it is reasonable to assume that a fall in energy prices in the coming months would put downward pressure on inflation, and vice versa.
It is clear that inflation will become less sensitive to swings in international energy prices as the country reduces its dependence on imports of fossil fuels. Net energy imports meet about 78% of total needs. But this is a medium- to long-term project that will take time and planning to deliver significant results.
Services and food, on the other hand, are more sensitive to other factors, such as production costs and the level of competition. Labour costs are an important factor and will clearly rise in the coming years.
That is partly because demand exceeds supply for both unskilled workers and skilled staff, and partly because there is political will to raise wages and incomes more broadly to tackle the cost of living.
In addition, the lack of competition seen in many parts of the services and food sectors encourages price rises at the slightest excuse to restore or widen profit margins.
Greek inflation is therefore most likely to persist, even if it falls to more bearable levels alongside energy prices, over the next year and beyond.
As long as the Greek economy grows at a rate similar to or higher than the eurozone average, Greek inflation is likely to remain above the eurozone average.