Euroxx says it has revisited its valuation model for Aktor Group following the completion of the share capital increase and successful restructuring, in an analysis of the stock.
We expect significant transformation over the next five years, with an industry-leading compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in EBITDA of around 24% and the creation of a leading platform in infrastructure and energy.
The balance sheet provides significant headroom for further expansion, while we see “upside risks” to the targets in the current business plan. We raise our target price (PT) to €15.3 per share, implying 62% upside from the current share price.
For 2026-2031, we estimate that Aktor will invest around €3bn in concessions, public-private partnerships (PPPs) and the energy sector. Once the investment cycle is complete, Aktor will have evolved into a well-diversified group, with adjusted EBITDA of more than €600m by 2030, around three times the 2026 level.
Cyclical cash flows from construction will be complemented by stable earnings from renewable energy, concessions, waste management and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
We believe Aktor has room to pursue mergers and acquisitions (M&A) or capital expenditure (CapEx) to expand its platform further, given its low net debt following the share capital increase.
The ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA, on a last-twelve-month (LTM) and pro forma basis, stood at 1.9x in the first half of 2026, while the net cash position was around €0.4bn, excluding non-recourse debt. We see scope for positive surprises, with further EBITDA growth from renewables, the development of its battery energy storage business and the LNG sector.