The restoration of investment-grade status, the move into developed-market indices and strong growth in corporate earnings fuelled an impressive rally, taking the General Index to 2,582 points.
Even so, the stock market is still valued at a discount of about 28% to Europe. The key question is no longer how far it has risen, but whether listed companies’ fundamentals and cash flows can justify current valuations — or even further gains — from here.
1. The rally in numbers
The Athens Stock Exchange has undergone a multi-year rerating rather than a short-lived surge, gaining 75.7% cumulatively since the end of 2024.
| Date | General Index | Annual / Cumulative Change |
|---|
| 31/12/2024 | 1,469.67 | — (Base date) |
| 31/12/2025 | 2,120.71 | +44.3% (2025) |
| 15/10/2026 | 2,582.10 | +21.8% (since the start of 2026) |
| 31/12/2024–15/10/2026 | — | +75.7% (cumulative) |
Source: Historical General Index data and closing figures for 2024–2026.
2. Greece’s stronger investment profile
The rally was supported by the gradual removal of structural constraints and a narrowing of the country risk premium.
| Milestone / Factor | Impact on the market | Timeframe |
|---|
| Restoration of investment-grade status | Lower risk and higher valuation multiples | 2023–2024 |
| Repair of bank balance sheets | Restored confidence and organic profitability | 2024–2025 |
| Upgrade to developed-market status | A broader pool of FTSE Russell institutional investors | September 2026 |
Note: FTSE Russell’s upgrade broadens the potential investor base, although it does not automatically translate into sustained inflows without fundamental support.
3. The global backdrop and Greece’s outperformance
The Greek market significantly outperformed European benchmark indices, demonstrating the strength of domestic catalysts.
| Benchmark | 2026 return (to 15/10/2026) | Comparison / spread |
|---|
| ATHEX General Index | +21.8% | — |
| STOXX Europe 600 | +8.1% | — |
| Athens Stock Exchange outperformance | — | +13.7 percentage points |
Source: Historical index price data, excluding dividends.
4. The quality of corporate earnings
Listed companies’ results confirm that businesses are genuinely improving, although profitability remains concentrated in certain key sectors.
A. Aggregate results (first half of 2026)
| Financial measure | Aggregate amount | Year-on-year change (YoY) |
|---|
| Total revenue | €58.0bn | +16.5% |
| Operating profit (EBITDA) | €10.8bn | +38.1% |
| Net profit | €7.76bn | +32.7% |
The sharp 32.7% increase in net profit shows that gains on the stockmarket are not driven by expectations alone, but are backed by a substantial expansion in operating profit margins. However, the aggregate figures are heavily influenced by large banking and energy groups, whose performance is often linked to favourable conditions, such as refining margins or interest income.
B. Profitability breadth indicators (sample of 146 companies)
| Company category | Number of companies | Share of sample |
|---|
| Companies reporting higher profits | 66 | 45% |
| Profitable companies in total | 117 | 80% |
Source: Aggregate market analysis for the first half of 2026 (01/10/2026).
Although eight in 10 Greek companies remain profitable, fewer than half (45%) managed to increase their profitability compared with the first half of 2025. This reveals a two-speed market: growth is not broad-based, making stock selection based on the quality and sustainability of cash flows essential.
5. Is the Athens Stock Exchange still cheap?
Despite the strong rally, the Greek market continues to trade at an attractive discount to the European market.
| Valuation metric | Athens Stock Exchange | STOXX Europe 600 | Comparison / implied discount |
|---|
| Forward P/E (next 12 months) | ~11.0x | ~15.3x | about -28% (discount) |
| EV / EBITDA | ~6.7x | ~9.2x | about -27% (discount) |
Source: AXIA Alpha Finance and STOXX data (15/10/2026).
6. What will determine the market’s next phase
With the initial rerating complete, the next period will be shaped by three key areas of execution:
| Area of assessment | Key factor | Objective / requirement |
|---|
| 1. Fundamentals | Sustainability of earnings (EPS) | Forecasts confirmed without downward revisions |
| 2. Capital flows | Tangible institutional inflows | Turning the upgrade into actual liquidity |
| 3. External environment | Macroeconomic variables | Managing interest rates, inflation and geopolitical risk |
Conclusion: What comes after the rally
The Athens Stock Exchange’s cumulative gains were not driven by a single factor, but resulted from a gradual institutional and business revival.
| Rally catalyst | Estimated contribution to gains | Main mechanism |
|---|
| 1. Rerating | ~45% - 50% | Lower risk, investment-grade status and developed-market status |
| 2. Organic profitability (EPS) | ~35% - 40% | Growth in operating revenue and margins (H1 2026) |
| 3. International momentum | ~10% - 15% | Supportive conditions in international capital markets |
The easy-rerating phase is over. The market’s next phase will not be determined by the broader international climate, but solely by listed companies’ ability to turn profits into strong, recurring cash flows and thereby justify their stockmarket valuations.
Sources and methodological notes: Investing.com / Athens Stock Exchange: Historical trading-session and index data, Enikonomia / AMNA: Market closing data for 31 December 2024., Moneyreview: Athens Stock Exchange review for 2025, Beta Securities: Aggregate analysis of results for 146 listed companies for the first half of 2026 (01/10/2026), FTSE Russell / LSEG: Announcement of Greece’s classification as a developed market (October 2026), AXIA Alpha Finance: Valuation analysis and outlook for the Athens Stock Exchange (15/10/2026), STOXX: Valuation data and official factsheet for the STOXX Europe 600.
Note: The General Index return reflects price changes (price return) and excludes dividends. Valuation comparisons are based on forecast earnings and may be affected by differences in methodology and sector composition. This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
* Nicholas Havoutis has extensive experience leading strategic finance teams, having held positions at JPMorgan (New York), Chase Manhattan Bank (London) and Eurobank (Athens). He also has a significant presence in the media. Today, as head of SoZone Limited, he advises businesses and investors on international growth, operational optimisation and mergers and acquisitions strategies.
