With new construction projects worth €12bn, AKTOR could further increase its backlog in the coming years, according to Euroxx, which sees scope for positive surprises from the group.
According to a new report by the brokerage, AKTOR’s EBITDA margins are recovering, while its existing backlog, with an EBITDA margin of 10%, is estimated to generate around €130m from construction activity over the next three years.
The group’s existing construction backlog stands at €4.5bn, according to first-half figures, of which 67% relates to signed contracts and 33% to contracts awaiting signature.
“The current backlog largely secures the revenue base for 2027-2029, providing predictable cash flows,” Euroxx says.
Estimates of the composition of the new projects AKTOR may take on are also of interest.
Alongside its strong backlog, a steady flow of new orders is expected, with the mix shifting towards more private-sector projects and activities related to the group’s expanded scope.
These include public-private partnerships, the concessions portfolio, renewable energy sources (RES) and new sectors (for example, a floating storage and regasification unit - FSRU), the report says.
As for the pipeline, the long-term portfolio of planned infrastructure projects in the Greek market totals around €40bn-€50bn, spanning energy projects, motorways, railways, and waste and water management projects.
“Assuming an average market share of 30%, the potential new projects AKTOR could secure approach €12bn,” Euroxx says.
In addition, foreign markets present opportunities for the group, which has a presence in Romania and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with its project backlog exceeding €1bn.
The company is currently completing projects in Romania worth around €700m, mainly in the rail sector. Despite the current macroeconomic challenges in Romania, long-term infrastructure needs remain significant, and the group is considered well positioned to win a share of the pool of future projects.
Positive surprises
The brokerage also highlighted the group’s other activities: concessions, waste management and energy. In the key energy sector, Euroxx sees scope for stronger performance.
“We see scope for positive surprises, with further growth in EBITDA from renewables, as well as from the development of activities in batteries and LNG,” it said.