Despite heightened uncertainty, sales in Greece’s business sector continue to rise, with momentum in line with Europe’s.
The latest edition of the “Business Trends” study series by the Economic Analysis Division of National Bank of Greece looks beyond short-term pressures to examine the long-term performance of Greek businesses. This perspective brings to light the less visible strength of industry, the only sector now producing and investing at levels above those recorded before the crisis.
The next challenge is to build on this progress to narrow the productivity gap with Europe. Time is of the essence: the acceleration of technology, led by artificial intelligence, could either speed up convergence or widen the gap.
Business-sector sales remained on an upward trajectory in the first half of 2026, rising by around 1% in real terms, although growth was weaker than in the previous half-year (+2.8%). Despite the slowdown, amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures, Greek businesses maintained a 1.1% share of European value added. Early indications for the third quarter are encouraging, with the uptrend accelerating to around 2-3%. By sector, construction (+10%) and ICT (+8%) stand out in the current environment, in line with ongoing efforts to upgrade the economy’s investment and digital capacity with support from EU funds.
Beyond short-term fluctuations, however, comparison with Europe highlights industry as a longstanding pillar of Greece’s business sector. Specifically:
Recovery in output, investment and European standing
Industry is the only broad sector now producing and investing at levels above those recorded before the crisis (by around 10-15% compared with 2008). It has also managed to follow a similar path to Europe, recovering its pre-crisis share of around 1% of European industry (in terms of real value added), while the corresponding share of the rest of the business sector remains around 40% below its 2008 level. This progress has been underpinned by an outward-looking approach, with exports accounting for ¾ of the increase in sales in the first half of 2026 (and almost ½ of the increase over the past decade).
Convergence in returns on capital
This progress is also reflected in the sector’s companies’ operating return on assets (ROA), which has now converged with the European average, at around 10%, closing the gap of 3.5 percentage points recorded in the previous decade. The improvement was supported by a rise of around 25% in labour productivity over the past decade, compared with a 3% decline in the rest of the business sector.
The strong performance of Greek industry is undoubtedly encouraging, but it is important that it helps accelerate progress, as there is still considerable ground to cover before it reaches European levels overall. Labour productivity, despite its increase, is only just above half the European level, with a shortfall of around 45%, compared with 51% in the previous decade. Nearly half of this gap remains even after adjusting for differences in sectoral and business-size composition. The high prevalence of small businesses and the low share of high-tech sectors therefore explain part, but not all, of the shortfall.
The next step for Greek industry is to turn improved profitability into investment that will expand and upgrade its productive base. Despite the recovery in investment, investment intensity remains below the European level, at 18% of the sector’s value added compared with 23% in Europe. Alongside increasing the amount invested, it is crucial to direct investment towards areas where Greek industry lags Europe by 40-60%:
Automation and data use: increasing the use of robots in production (10% of businesses, compared with 16% in the EU) and improving the organisation of business data.
Worker training: developing the digital and general skills required to upgrade production (19% of workers, compared with 46% in the EU).
Process efficiency: better integration of internal systems, such as ERP and CRM, and the digitisation of transactions with customers and suppliers.
Artificial intelligence (AI) will play a pivotal role in this transformation, and is expected to significantly boost productivity (+0.6-0.9 percentage points a year in the EU over the next decade). However, its exponential growth also significantly increases the risk of widening disparities between countries, making it urgent for Greek industry to close the gap with its European competitors (AI is used by 8% of businesses, compared with 17% in the EU).
The study is available on the National Bank of Greece Group website, under Economic Studies and Analysis (Greek Entrepreneurship category):
https://www.nbg.gr/el/omilos/meletes-oikonomikes-analuseis/elliniki-epixeirimatikotita/taseis-tou-epixeirein