Based on the share price of €48.14 on 16 October, the new target implies upside of about 35%. Including the estimated dividend yield of 2.4%, the total potential return comes to 37.4%.
In its analysis of third-quarter results, Citi forecasts revenue of €754 million, up 10.2% year on year, but EBITDA of €173 million, down 7.3%. On a like-for-like basis, excluding the effects of acquisitions and other changes in the group, it estimates revenue growth of just 0.3% and a 15.6% fall in EBITDA.
In the US, continued weakness in the housing market is weighing on cement sales volumes. Activity in non-residential construction and infrastructure is only partly offsetting the pressure, while price increases and the acquisition of Keystone are supporting revenue.
In Europe, Citi notes positive momentum in Greece, with stable prices and an additional contribution from France. South-eastern Europe is seeing stable volumes and satisfactory pricing. In the eastern Mediterranean, Egypt is recording strong volume growth, but prices remain under pressure, while the acquisition in Turkey is adding activity to the group.
Lower profit estimates
Citi cuts its revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by about 1% and reduces its EBITDA estimates by 7%-9%. The revisions reflect higher energy and raw material costs, a smaller contribution from the gap between selling prices and production costs, and acquisition-related expenses.
For 2026, it now forecasts revenue growth of 8.8% and EBITDA growth of 5.9%, with an EBITDA margin of 22.1%. These estimates fall short of management’s target for high-single-digit sales growth, faster EBITDA growth and expanding profit margins.
Despite the revisions, Citi maintains its positive view on the shares, citing resilient pricing, the contribution of acquisitions to growth and supportive prospects for the group’s key markets.