Piraeus Securities has resumed coverage of HelleniQ Energy, setting a target price of €22 and an Outperform rating, implying 13% upside from the current market price.
A favourable refining margin environment, combined with the geographical advantage of the company’s refineries, is expected to boost adjusted EBITDA from refining to around €1.7bn in 2026 (based on a “clean” refining margin of $25.5 a barrel) and Group adjusted EBITDA to around €2bn.
With the International Energy Agency (IEA) expecting tight diesel supply to persist through 2027, the company is expected to continue to perform exceptionally well that year, with estimated adjusted EBITDA from refining of around €1.3bn and Group adjusted EBITDA of around €1.7bn.
After 2027, we expect margin normalisation to accelerate. Margins will nevertheless remain above historical levels, as constraints on refining capacity are now becoming a long-term structural issue.
Our estimate of a mid-cycle refining margin of $16.1 a barrel in 2030 implies strong adjusted EBITDA from refining of around €0.85bn and Group adjusted EBITDA of around €1.3bn, allowing the company to maintain a healthy dividend policy (a yield of around 4.5%) and pursue new investment opportunities, the analysts write.
For 2026, we estimate that ELPE’s refining margin will be around $25.5 a barrel, compared with $16.5 a barrel in 2025 and $20 a barrel in 2022, which was also an exceptional year.
Our forecast assumes a margin of $36 a barrel in the third quarter of 2026, amid a sharp increase in refining product cracks for diesel and petrol — which we estimate at around $80 a barrel for diesel and $45 a barrel for petrol — before easing to a still-high $22 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 (around $45 a barrel for diesel and $20 a barrel for petrol).
The listed company is less exposed to higher oil transport costs, thanks to the proximity of its refineries to key sources of crude oil. Against this backdrop, we estimate that adjusted EBITDA from refining will reach around €1.7bn in 2026, a sharp 90% increase on last year, the analysts continue.
Our base sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation indicates an enterprise value (EV) of €8.7bn (or an equity value of €6.7bn), of which €7.4bn is attributable to the core refining and marketing business, €0.9bn to renewable energy sources (RES) and €0.4bn to the Power & Gas business.
Motor Oil
Piraeus Securities has updated its valuation model for Motor Oil, raising its target price to €81 from €61 in its 13 July report. The new target price implies upside of around 16%, while the Outperform rating is reiterated.
The valuation upgrade reflects a stronger-than-expected refining environment in the third quarter of 2026 and improved medium-term prospects for refining margins, as tight diesel supply is expected to persist through 2027.
We now estimate that adjusted EBITDA from refining will reach around €1.8bn in 2026 (based on a “clean” refining margin of $27 a barrel), with Group adjusted EBITDA of around €2.1bn, the analysts write.
The company is expected to continue to perform exceptionally well in 2027, with estimated adjusted EBITDA from refining of around €1.5bn and Group adjusted EBITDA of around €1.8bn.
After 2027, we expect margin normalisation to accelerate, although margins will remain above historical levels as constraints on refining capacity are now a long-term structural issue.
Our estimate of a mid-cycle refining margin of $16.2 a barrel in 2030 implies strong adjusted EBITDA from refining of around €0.85bn and Group adjusted EBITDA of around €1.2bn.
Our estimates indicate that the Group will have a high net cash position of around €1.6bn by 2030 (around €2.4bn excluding funding for RES projects), which could be used to increase the dividend or pursue new investment opportunities.
Management’s annual strategy update, scheduled for late November, is expected to provide more details on capital allocation.
Our revised SOTP valuation indicates an enterprise value (EV) of €9.1bn (or an equity value of €9bn), of which €7.5bn is attributable to the core refining and marketing business, €1.3bn to renewable energy sources (RES) and €0.35bn to the circular economy. The stakes, including the 50% stake in the power-sector joint venture with GEK TERNA, are valued at around €0.65bn in total, after applying a 20% discount.