GEROULANOS: “You don’t know me, I don’t know you; you’re suffering and so am I.” Paul Geroulanos used this line by Kostas Chatzichristos from “Ilias of the 16th” to describe the government’s response after Kimberly Guilfoyle was removed from the US Embassy in Athens.
“We could have left it at the absurdity of the whole thing,” he said (in parliament yesterday), but chose instead to highlight “the extremely serious aspect”, as he put it: “First, judging from what we gathered from reports after Ms Guilfoyle’s departure, it turns out we were right. Indeed, she had approached Greek ministers, referring to the recent fall of the government in Romania and saying:
“We can do this in any country we want. We can do it here too.” These are not words anyone should use, even as a joke. The government and ministers who were present denied it. The foreign minister, for his part, said that since a minister who was present had denied it, “calling in an ambassador and possibly creating a diplomatic incident of this kind would, I think, be entirely unnecessary.”
Mr Geroulanos’s next words were even harsher for George Gerapetritis: “Does anything bother him? Can he tell us where the red line is, if this isn’t it? Does he have one? Why did you bow your head in the face of an unprecedented diplomatic slight?” These are difficult times for Greek diplomacy too.
CLASHES: We reported yesterday that the government was trying to pre-emptively talk about clashes during student protests and, if they happened, blame them on Tsipras. That effort continues, with New Democracy figures invoking the events following the killing of 15-year-old Alexis Grigoropoulos in December 2008.
At the time, SYRIZA was on the brink of making it into parliament — and only just managed to do so a year later, proof, as everyone said at the time, that it had gained no electoral benefit from the events. The obvious message is being heard from ELAS, as well as from PASOK and all the parties of the progressive camp: “Yes to protests, because young people in particular have the right and the duty to demand a better life — no to clashes and vandalism.”
They are also warning that they will be on alert to counter “the actions of provocateurs”, with smashed paving stones and the usual stone-throwing “that signal the start of widespread police assaults”. We will know within hours: student protests began in central Athens last night and are due to last two days.
ELAS: “Tsipras pledged a 13th pension payment when the money became available from taxing the wealthy and through the patriotic contribution. Androulakis is talking today about a 13th pension payment and restoring EKAS. But his own programme has not been put… up against the wall as uncosted.”
That is the response from ELAS officials to the PASOK leader, who yesterday criticised the former prime minister because “in early October he wasn’t talking about a 13th pension payment, but he is doing so at the end of October.” Either way, it is all a matter of perspective, rivalry and pre-election sparring…
PASOK: The main opposition party may be coming third in Attica, a long way behind its main rival, ELAS, but at Harilaou Trikoupi, PASOK’s headquarters, officials are expressing satisfaction and optimism.
In the Opinion Poll survey, New Democracy stands at 26.3% (voting intention), ELAS at 13.9% and PASOK at 8.6%. On the vote estimate, the figures rise to 31.5%, 16.9% and 10.2%, respectively.
What explains the “green” euphoria? First, PASOK has moved into third place for the first time in many years, after trailing the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) in recent elections. The KKE now stands at 8.8%.
Second, comparing ELAS’s polling figure with SYRIZA’s result in the 2023 election, they note that “Tsipras” is three points behind.
What they overlook is that SYRIZA in 2023 bears no resemblance to ELAS in 2026, since the only thing the two have in common is the person who was then, and is now, their leader.
On that basis, the “green” team believes its campaign blitz across the Athens region over the past 20 days has paid off and that… better things are on the way. Even if only by inches.
CHINA: Anyone who thinks the biggest problem facing European industry is the advance of cheap Chinese electric cars is seeing only the tip of the iceberg.
A highly interesting analysis by economist Richard Baldwin, a professor at the very… prestigious IMD in Lausanne, shows, using OECD data, that between 2021 and 2024 China increased its output relative to the rest of the world in 18 of the 19 industrial sectors examined.
Even more striking? Relative prices for Chinese products fell in all 19 sectors. In other words, China is steadily gaining ground, producing a growing share of industrial goods at increasingly competitive prices.
What is truly revealing, though, is that the automotive industry — around which much of the debate about China in Europe revolves — ranks only eighth for growth in relative output!
Taking the size of each sector into account, the biggest contributions to China’s industrial expansion come from electrical equipment, computers and electronics, with industrial machinery in third place.
They are followed by chemicals, steel and other sectors which — and this is the most important point — formed the backbone of European industrial power for decades. Germany above all!
In other words, China’s advance in international markets is gathering pace, eating into its competitors’ market shares as its industrial exports grow even faster than its output.
EUROPE: While Beijing has been pursuing a coherent industrial strategy for years, investing in technology, production scale and competitiveness, Europe appears to be… asleep when it comes to tackling high energy costs, bureaucracy, incomprehensible regulatory burdens and a chronic investment shortfall.
Instead, it is trying to respond with knee-jerk measures such as tariffs and trade restrictions, as it recently did with cars. Such steps may offer temporary relief, but are unlikely to replace an effective industrial policy.
As the figures above show, the real battle is being fought on a much broader front. Quotas and tariffs across the whole range of sectors would therefore lead to a generalised trade war — one in which China also has some powerful cards to play.
Consider, for example, rare earths, as well as China’s near-total dominance of the supply chain and mass production of drones.
That means that unless Europe fundamentally changes its approach, the industrial “Deutsche über alles” of the past will become a permanent… “China über alles”.
FOURLIS: Romania may be weighing on the listed company’s performance, but its value to the group cannot be measured by its contribution to the bottom line alone. A presence in a market of this size is a powerful bargaining chip in talks with international brands.
Foot Locker is a case in point: the partnership might not have come about had the group been limited to the Greek market.
Operating in Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Cyprus gives the group the critical mass and know-how sought by major international players. That does not mean, of course, that the group is ignoring the challenges.
Romania’s biggest problem today is political, not economic. The group nevertheless remains optimistic about the country’s medium-term prospects, citing foreign investment, natural resources and demographic inflows from Moldova.
TRADE ESTATES: For now, at least, the possibility of Fourlis selling part of its stake in the REIC remains on the shelf. The group’s CEO, Giannis Vasilakos, described talk of reducing its 47% stake to free up capital for new investment or debt reduction as “highly theoretical”.
He explained why. The property company offers higher percentage returns than the group’s current operations, contributing revenue and dividends at a time when its transformation entails significant one-off costs. There is, however, a less obvious consideration.
Trade Estates controls a significant proportion of the properties used by Fourlis itself. The stake is therefore not simply a financial investment; it is also tied to the group’s operations.
There are no plans to reduce the stake to a level that would deprive Fourlis Group of its full minority rights, although the company clarified that the relevant decisions rest with the board of directors. In other words, Fourlis Group does not appear willing to sacrifice a profitable, strategic stake for a temporary boost to liquidity.
CMF: Capital Marine Finance recorded impressive turnover within a particularly narrow trading range on its first day of trading.
A total of 1.84 million shares in the shipping company owned by Evangelos Marinakis changed hands, with a combined value of €13.9 million. The shares, which debuted at €7.50, reached a high of €7.55 and a low of €7.46 before closing at €7.52, up 0.27%.
SHIPPING: Star Bulk fell yesterday to €25, down 1.65%, its lowest level since listing at €27.50. The shares are now just 50 cents above the price at which they were offered in the capital increase for the parallel listing on Euronext Athens.
The sector’s other listed representative, Safe Bulkers, also came under pressure. It fell 2.51%, closing at €6.98. Over the past 30 days, it has lost more than 12%.
ALLWYN: The shares start trading today ex-dividend, following an interim dividend of €0.20 per share, equivalent to a yield of 1.6%.
Shareholders can choose to receive the amount either in cash or by reinvesting it in shares of the listed company. The election period for shareholders who wish to receive shares instead of cash will run from 23 October to 5 November.
Both the cash dividend payment and the distribution of shares are scheduled for 12 November.
The shares fell yesterday, closing at €12.08 (-1.31%). Their three-month return is also negative, at 8%.
CENERGY: The shares fell yesterday despite the news that the board had approved doubling the planned capacity of its plant in Maryland, citing strong demand and positive trends in the US market.
The shares fell to €21.66, down 2.26%, close to the session low of €21.60. Trading reached €6.2 million.
Production at Phase I is still scheduled to begin in the second half of 2027, followed by Phase II during the 2028 financial year.
Management said the expansion of the Maryland plant would require additional investment beyond the capital expenditure (capex) already planned, to be funded entirely from the group’s existing resources.
This means that some market fears of a possible new share capital increase have been allayed.
Eurobank Equities estimates that the additional capital expenditure for Phase II will amount to about €50-60 million, most of it to be incurred in the 2027 financial year. It expects the 2028 and 2029 financial years to be the first years of full contribution from Phase I and Phase II, respectively.
According to the brokerage, increased production at the Maryland plant could contribute total EBITDA of more than €60 million