Greece’s gradual transformation from a mere regional gas consumer into a gateway for gas is a strategic advantage for the country and south-eastern Europe, according to an analysis (“Greece's Gas Market at an Inflection Point: Regional Export Hub in a Tight European Winter”) by Grant Thornton Greece.
At the same time, the analysis finds that the Greek market has a more concentrated risk profile than Europe, characterised by a lack of storage, high exposure to spot LNG prices, a power generation sector that accounts for two-thirds of domestic demand, and a large volume of pipeline gas that must be replaced by November 2027. It therefore proposes four key measures for the natural gas market:
- Securing LNG through medium- or long-term contracts rather than at spot prices, while broadening the supplier base.
- Gas infrastructure operators along the Vertical Corridor should conduct coordinated stress tests to improve the allocation of capacity and gas supplies in emergency situations before the first cold snap.
- Preparing to replace Russian natural gas with LNG.
- Managing the pass-through of natural gas prices to electricity costs.
“The coming winter will test whether Greece’s new role as a regional hub is matched by the readiness needed to sustain it. The infrastructure is in place; the next step is to establish the right framework of contracts, rules and risk-management practices around it,” the analysis concludes.