Fitch affirmed Greece’s BBB/A-2 credit rating, maintaining a stable outlook on the country’s debt.
It notes that Greece is on track to record consecutive primary fiscal surpluses, which S&P Global Ratings estimates will reach 3.8% of GDP in 2026, thanks to reforms to improve tax compliance and reduce unemployment, despite higher public investment spending.
Although Greece’s external imbalances remain elevated, we believe the country’s membership of the eurozone and its compliance with EU fiscal rules provide protection against the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis.
Economic growth has proved resilient through successive crises, while the outlook remains positive, supported by the still-substantial pipeline of investments under way or planned.
We therefore affirm Greece’s long- and short-term ratings at “BBB/A-2”. The outlook remains stable.
Outlook
The stable outlook balances Greece’s strong economic and public finance performance against its high levels of external and public debt.
Downside scenario
We could downgrade the ratings if Greece’s fiscal performance deteriorated significantly.
Upside scenario
We could upgrade Greece if its external imbalances improved substantially and sustainably. This could happen, for example, if the economy became less dependent on imports. We could also upgrade the country if its external debt, a large share of which is public, fell significantly.