New Democracy and Maximos Mansion are breaking down polling performance across the country, as the party organisation gradually gears up for the coming elections.
Polls conducted in constituencies are seeking to map the governing party’s resilience, identify the areas where it retains greater momentum and, above all, those where it has suffered the biggest losses, so that an appropriate strategy can be developed.
The truth is that support is moving at different speeds from one region to another.
The overall picture shows New Democracy losing ground compared with the 2023 general election, although the decline is not evenly distributed. Based on the available data, the Attica basin, Crete and much of Greece’s islands are performing relatively better. By contrast, Macedonia and the Peloponnese show a sharper decline for the governing party.
In Attica, New Democracy has a more favourable polling picture than in other areas. In a recent Opinion Poll survey (for Action24), it has 26.3% of voting intentions, rising to 31.5% in the vote estimate and clearing the psychological 30% threshold. The Greek Solution stands at 16.9% and PASOK at 10.2%, according to the survey.
For New Democracy’s campaign team, maintaining this momentum is a key priority, as the Attica basin accounts for a large share of the electorate and has a decisive influence on the nationwide result.
Crete is of particular interest, with Maximos Mansion believing that New Democracy can seek to retain first place in all four prefectures. A recent poll by ‘to the point’ (for Haniotika Nea) puts the party at 24.2% in the Chania regional unit, 13.1 points ahead of PASOK. The share of undecided voters is also significant, at 17.5%, while 5.5% did not answer.
A tougher picture
The Peloponnese is a greater source of concern for the governing party. A Data Consultants poll conducted in July for the newspaper Peloponnisos found a particularly close contest in Achaia. New Democracy had 21% of voting intentions, followed by the Greek Solution at 18.7% and PASOK at 8.6%. The poll also captured the uncertainty created by the prospect of Antonis Samaras founding a party, which, if it “takes shape”, would thoroughly reshuffle the political deck.
The picture is even tougher in Macedonia, where New Democracy’s decline is being accompanied by gains for parties further to the right. A comparison of the results of the 2023 general election with those of the 2024 European elections showed double-digit losses for New Democracy in 15 of the 17 prefectures of northern Greece.
In areas such as Imathia, Pella, Kilkis, Thessaloniki B, Serres and Drama, the Greek Solution has strengthened its presence, seeking to win over some of the electoral base that traditionally supported New Democracy.
This area has now become one of the key priorities in the party’s planning. The effort is not only about recovering lost support, but also about reconnecting with voters who are dissatisfied with government decisions, day-to-day issues and the sense that problems in the regions are not being addressed quickly enough.
Western Macedonia presents a particular case. Kozani, Florina and Ptolemaida are grappling with the consequences of the energy transition, as well as problems with employment, demographic decline and access to health services.
Against this backdrop, Kyriakos Mitsotakis has personally taken charge of efforts to persuade local communities that the phase-out of lignite can be accompanied by a new development model.
With this in mind, the party organisation is preparing the next phase of targeted initiatives. A new round of visits by the prime minister, ministers and teams of party officials is expected to be a central part of the effort, with a focus on areas where New Democracy is furthest below its previous election results.
The strategy is expected to vary by region. Everywhere, the aim is to rally supporters and address discontent over high prices and cost-of-living pressures. Much of the focus will be on highlighting measures, tackling local problems and seeking to win back voters who have drifted away from the party.
A key challenge, whose outcome will go a long way towards determining the final result.