The previous two sessions of losses brought cumulative declines of 4.28% for the General Index and 8.7% for the Banking Index. Both the General Index and the Banking Index fell to three-month lows (the previous lower close for the General Index was on 28 July, at 2,521.18 points, and for the Banking Index on 23 July, at 2,784.92 points), while the two-day sell-off wiped €7 billion off the Athens Exchange’s total market capitalisation.
A rebound attempt was to be expected today, even if it was merely a technical one, with the positive tone in European markets and a slight easing in oil prices helping sentiment among the few buyers.
There was also significant support from the closing auctions, which took the Athens Exchange’s main indices to their intraday highs, along with five large-cap stocks.
Taking events in chronological order, Standard & Poor’s affirmed Greece’s “BBB/A-2” credit rating, maintaining a stable outlook on the country’s rating. Fitch Ratings is next, on 6 November 2026, completing the annual review cycle.
Among the features of today’s session were a markedly lower net value of transactions, the return of buyers to the heavyweight banking sector, which led the rebound attempt—as confirmed by the Banking Index’s final gain of 3.19%—and a recovery in some smaller-cap stocks that had hit multi-month or even multi-year lows in the immediately preceding sessions.
All this came as Brent fell towards $110 a barrel, while the latest reports said that “the US is preparing for a prolonged conflict with Iran”.
US President Donald Trump said that “the time for a decision is approaching: whether to reach a deal with Tehran or resume attacks, as threats from Iran and the Houthis against Americans in the Middle East continue to mount”.
“US forces in the Middle East are ready to launch new, potentially large-scale military operations against Iran within 96 hours of receiving an order from President Donald Trump,” according to two US officials.
“It will be a major operation,” one of the officials told CNN.
If the negative factors above persist, it would be a major surprise if the General Index did not close the ‘gap’ at 2,518–2,498 points, and we will see what follows.
According to an experienced analyst, “the midweek public holiday is unhelpful if international risk aversion persists, and the balance between buyers and sellers could shift to lower levels. The period when foreign investors close their books starts in mid-November; political uncertainty in France is affecting sentiment towards Europe and its banks, while domestic political risk will gradually attract a greater share of attention. Given the above, the medium-term scenario of no clear trend appears to be gaining strength”.
According to another analyst, known for conservative forecasts that are rarely wrong, “buyers’ short-term hopes now rest on the 30-week exponential moving average (2,488 points). It could well halt the downward momentum, at least temporarily, and provide a starting point for an upward rebound. The short-term trend we are following is clearly downward. A move above the 2,615–2,625 zone is needed to reverse the trend upwards. The General Index of the Athens Exchange is likely to fluctuate between 2,750 and 2,400 points until a stable, liberal government is elected. As the election approaches, the market’s focus will gradually shift from geopolitical developments, inflation and interest rates towards opinion polls. Caution is warranted, as all the sources of concern remain unresolved”.
At this stage, the role of “driver” has clearly been taken by international market sentiment, while the more optimistic continue to believe that the forthcoming nine-month bank results could provide some “buffer” against “imported” pressures.
It is worth recalling that nine-month results are due in the following order: EUROB 29/10/2026, PIR 30/10/2026, ALPHA 30/10/2026, NBG 5/11/2026, BOCHGR 5/11/2026, OPTIMA 11/11/2026 and CREDIA 12/11/2026.
Alongside the bank results, and according to Beta Sec., Athens International Airport is due to report on Tuesday 27 October in the week that has just begun. OTE will announce results before the market opens on Friday 30 October. Finally, CPI and Nakas will report their 12-month financial-year results at the end of the week.
Also on the radar is the forthcoming public offering for the return of METKA to the Athens Exchange.
The “Euronext Athens Small Cap Conference 2026” will take place on 2 November 2026 at the Divani Caravel hotel (according to the Euronext Athens invitation, the participating companies are Alpha Trust Andromeda, AS Company, Biokarpet, Daios, Elton, EIS, Lanakam, Quality & Reliability, Revoil, Softweb, Trek Development, Unibios, Verallis and Y/KNOT Invest).
On 30 November and 1 December, the focus will shift to London for the Morgan Stanley & Euronext Athens Greek Investment Conference 2026.
GEK TERNA tapped the markets today with a €500 million seven-year Eurobond. The issue size had been set on a “no-grow” basis: the €500 million amount would not be increased, however strong demand might be.
The book for GEK TERNA’s bond (+3.43%) ultimately closed with €2.3 billion in orders. The company raised €500 million. The coupon was set at 4.75%, while the issue had initially been expected to yield up to 5.1% (based on a mid-swap rate of 3.45% plus a spread of around 165–170 basis points). The aim is to refinance the group’s previous seven-year bond, which matures in 2027. The bond will carry a fixed rate, with interest paid annually, and will be listed on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange.
Bond market yields were stable or edged slightly lower.
More specifically, the US two-year yield was steady at 4.71%, while the 10-year yield stood at 4.98%. The 30-year yield was 5.3%. The Greek 10-year yield was 4.342%, while the yield on the equivalent French bond eased to 4.89%.
It is recalled that Moody’s Ratings completed its periodic review of France’s credit rating, keeping fiscal challenges, political instability and worsening borrowing conditions in focus. It noted that “rising public debt and a weaker capacity to service it are key credit challenges”. The agency maintained France’s rating at “Aa3” with a negative outlook.
According to the International Monetary Fund’s annual report (IMF Annual Report 2026), “fiscal buffers are running out, prompting investors to demand higher risk premiums (spreads). The era of ‘cheap borrowing’ for European governments is gone for good. Pressure on sovereign debt markets is no longer a temporary phenomenon but a structural change in the investment environment. The cost of servicing public debt worldwide has risen by nearly 50% in just three years, now absorbing close to 3% of GDP. This development sharply reduces the resources available for productive investment and makes government bonds more vulnerable to every new shock. The return of so-called ‘bond vigilantes’—investors who punish countries with lax fiscal discipline by selling their bonds in large volumes—is shifting the balance. The era in which central banks indiscriminately absorbed government issuance through quantitative easing programmes has ended. Markets are now demanding meaningful guarantees of debt sustainability”.
According to the economic calendar, the next Fed meetings and announcements are scheduled for 28/10 and 9/12/2026.
The corresponding ECB meetings are scheduled for 29/10 and 17/12/2026.
The next scheduled monetary policy meetings are on 30/10 and 18/12 for the BoJ, and on 5/11 and 17/12 for the BoE.
The Fed has now entered its pre-meeting blackout period ahead of its October meeting.
Alongside central bank meetings, attention abroad will remain firmly focused on third-quarter corporate results, with the pivotal technology sector also coming into the spotlight.
According to Beta Sec., “on Tuesday 27 October, before the market opens, Boeing, Coca-Cola and PayPal will report, followed by Robinhood and Visa after the close. On Wednesday 28 October, Aon, ADP, Etsy and GE Vernova will report before trading begins, while after the close attention will turn to Alphabet, Microsoft, FedEx, Ford and ServiceNow. On Thursday 29 October, Bristol Myers Squibb, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Mastercard and Merck are due to report before the open, while Amazon, Intel, Mondelez, Rivian, SanDisk, Starbucks, Strategy and Twilio will report after the close. Finally, on Friday 30 October, AbbVie and Chevron will report before the market opens, while ExxonMobil’s results are also expected”.
“A few days before the 3 November midterm elections, Wall Street is close to record highs, despite the growing likelihood that Republicans will lose control of Congress. History shows that such an outcome is not necessarily negative for equities. The real problem lies in high valuations, large fiscal deficits and, above all, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury, as Simeon Mavroudis points out.
At the same time, prediction markets estimate that Democrats have more than a 90% chance of winning the House of Representatives and roughly a 65% chance of taking the Senate as well. On that basis, Donald Trump is likely to face a Congress that would significantly constrain his legislative agenda.
The 2018 midterms, during Donald Trump’s first term as president, are a case in point. Democrats won the House of Representatives and the S&P 500 gained 2% the following day. Over the next few weeks, however, it fell almost 20%, through to Christmas.
The problem was not the election result but the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy, as it continued to raise interest rates.
Recently, the US 10-year Treasury yield topped 5%, reaching 5.35% in early October amid tighter monetary policy. This creates a significant problem for equity valuations because, with the S&P 500 trading at around 19 times forward earnings, its corresponding earnings yield is close to 5.3%.
When a 10-year US Treasury bond offers a yield of around 5.1%, the difference narrows to just 0.2 percentage points.
Put simply, investors can secure a high nominal yield from government bonds without taking on the same risk as they would by investing in equities.
Of course, this comparison does not fully capture the equity risk premium, since companies can grow their earnings over time. It does, however, show how limited the scope for further gains in equity valuations has become.
As long as the US 10-year yield remains near or above 5%, Wall Street will need stronger corporate earnings growth to justify higher prices.
If bond yields rise further, pressure could intensify, particularly on technology companies, whose valuations are based to a large extent on future earnings.
So the elections will determine the political balance in Washington, but the course of the US 10-year Treasury yield will determine how much investors are willing to pay for future corporate earnings,” says Mr Mavroudis (portfolio manager at Fast Finance Securities).
The General Index remained in positive territory throughout the session, climbing to an intraday high of 2,568.71 points (+1.51%). At 17.00 it stood at 2,568.05 (+1.49%), before ending the session at a new high of 2,569.82 points, up 1.56% on the day.
Turnover was €258.2 million, of which €23.6 million was accounted for by pre-agreed transactions (CREDIA, CENER, MOH, GEK TERNA, PPC, NBG, EUROB, ALPHA, PIR). NBG, PIR, EUROB and ALPHA accounted for 55% of total gross transaction value.
Of total turnover of €258.2 million, €244.5 million came from trading in FTSE 25 shares.