Optima Bank maintains its target price of €22.50 for OTE shares and reiterates its Buy recommendation, seeing 18.2% upside from the closing price of €19.03 on 27 October.
Ahead of the third-quarter results announcement, the brokerage expects a positive quarter operationally and financially, with adjusted EBITDA after leases rising 3% year on year. This performance is expected to keep OTE on track to meet its target of a similar increase in EBITDA for full-year 2026.
Optima forecasts revenue of €839 million, down 4%, but adjusted EBITDA of €371 million, up 3%. As a result, the EBITDA margin is expected to widen to 44.2%, from 41.2% a year earlier.
The decline in revenue is attributed mainly to contraction in the international wholesale segment, which offers no meaningful profit margin. By contrast, mobile telephony and ICT services are expected to support growth. ICT solutions in particular are estimated to rise 19.4% year on year, with scope to exceed the initial forecast of 15% growth in 2026.
Free cash flow is expected to remain strong, with OTE on track to meet its annual target of €750 million, also supported by lower tax payments.
In valuation terms, the shares trade at 5.5 times estimated 2027 enterprise value to EBITDA, compared with 5.3 times for the peer median. However, a P/E ratio of 11.6 times implies a discount of about 14% to the peer average, which, together with OTE’s defensive qualities and shareholder returns, supports Optima’s positive recommendation.