Ambrosia Capital maintains its “buy” rating on IPTO Holdings, while raising its price target to €6.20 per share from €6.00 previously. The new target implies 44% upside from the latest closing price of €4.30. Including the 2.6% dividend yield, total returns come to about 47%.
In their report, analysts Konstantinos Rafael Margonis and Osman Memisoglu base their positive view on three factors: the investment programme is funded and the valuation remains low; an earnings guidance beat this year is inevitable; and the new 2027-2036 Ten-Year Development Plan spreads investment more evenly over time.
The €530 million capital increase was completed in June, enabling IPTO to build one of the fastest-growing regulated asset bases (RAB) among European transmission system operators. The year-end RAB is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 22% in 2026-2028, compared with a European average of 11%.
Growth and earnings
Return on equity after tax will fall to 7.3% this year because of the capital increase, but the broker expects it to recover to 11.6% in 2029 and 13.5% in 2030. IPTO trades at about 1.0 times EV/RAB for 2026, compared with an average of about 1.4 times for European peers, a valuation that Ambrosia says does not reflect the company’s growth profile.
With the new transmission use-of-system (TUoS) charges in effect since March, a beat to 2026 guidance is considered a given. In the first half, EBITDA rose 26% and net profit increased 37%, while second-quarter revenue reached €137 million, up 3.2% quarter on quarter and 27% year on year.
The forecast for 2026 adjusted EBITDA remains at €398 million (4% above the top end of guidance), while net profit rises to €188 million (2% above the top end) due to lower depreciation. IPTO is also expected to recover about €243 million through the P1 parameter in 2027-2031.
The new 2027-2036 Ten-Year Plan raises total investment to €9 billion (€7.4 billion excluding the Greece-Cyprus electricity interconnector GSI, which is excluded from the estimates). The Dodecanese and North Aegean interconnectors are due to be completed in 2030, with their costs spread over 2028-2030. Annual investment is expected to average close to €1.5 billion in 2027-2030.
With €0.35 billion of investment shifted out of 2027-2028, net debt to EBITDA falls to 3.5 times in 2027 and 4.6 times in 2028. Net debt to RAB peaks at 57% in 2030, below the 60% limit, while RAB is expected to reach €8.5 billion at the end of 2030, including the GRITA 2 project under consideration by RAAEY.
Ambrosia raises its forecasts for IPTO Holdings’ net profit to €97.1 million for 2026, an increase of 11.3%, and €150.3 million for 2028, up 21.4%. The price target is derived from a DCF model with 2031 as the exit year, a terminal value of 1.15 times the average 2031 RAB (€8.8 billion) and an unchanged WACC of 6.15%.
On a P/E basis, IPTO trades at 15.9 times this year, close to the sector multiple of 16.3, but the ratio falls to 10.1 times in 2028, compared with 14.7 times for peers. Despite a lower dividend yield during the intensive investment phase, RAB growth ensures higher total returns for investors.