Gikas Hardouvelis, chairman of the board of National Bank of Greece, highlighted the different messages markets are sending about artificial intelligence as he opened Fintech Athens 5.0.
He said that, on the one hand, stock markets are pricing in future productivity gains. On the other, bond markets are sending warning signals about the risks and the potential over-leveraging of technology companies.
Equity market expectations and bond market concerns
Mr Hardouvelis described AI as a general-purpose technology with the potential to transform production, education, communication and the provision of financial services.
On the scale of investment, he noted that, according to some estimates, AI-related technology investment accounted for about half of US GDP growth in 2025. He also said Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle invested a combined total of more than $400bn in 2025, equivalent to about 1.3% of US GDP.
Historical experience, he explained, shows that disruptive technologies transform the economy and boost productivity, but these effects take time to emerge. Financial markets, by contrast, price in such expectations much earlier.
“Financial markets move very quickly, immediately pricing in these future productivity gains, long before they materialise,” he said. He also attributed the debate over AI-driven stock market gains to these expectations.
Bond markets, however, are sending different signals. As he noted, they are showing signs of risk or strain, as well as concerns about potential over-leveraging by technology companies.
To illustrate these concerns, he pointed to spreads of 100 to 320 basis points for US technology companies, with one extreme case exceeding 1,000 basis points.
“Stock markets paint one picture, while yield spreads and bond markets paint another,” he said.
The US-China technology race
Behind the financial markets’ reactions, however, a global technology race between the US and China is under way, he said. The US model has relied heavily on massive investment in computing power and data centre infrastructure. China, by contrast, is pursuing a different strategy, with lower costs and more open approaches.
These contrasting strategies, he said, raise a fundamental economic question: “Who will ultimately lead in artificial intelligence: those who invest the most, or those who can achieve comparable results at lower cost and broaden the technology’s use across the economy?”
As he stressed, AI’s economic value will not be measured simply by how advanced its models are, but by their impact on productivity, innovation and people’s lives.
Striking a careful balance between AI and human oversight
As artificial intelligence becomes more powerful and more autonomous, the NBG chairman raised the question of human oversight in its use. “How do we ensure that technology remains people’s servant, rather than people becoming servants of technology?” he asked.
He described a delicate balance: “We want innovation, but we also need responsibility. We encourage technological ambition, but also require financial discipline. We embrace artificial intelligence, but also need human judgement when putting decisions into practice.”
The challenge affects everyone, particularly younger people, who will develop and use new technologies and ultimately shape the framework for their governance.
“The question is no longer whether we will adopt artificial intelligence. That decision has essentially already been made. The question is how we will use it,” he said, noting that fintech and banking are among the sectors that will be called on to provide answers first.
New partners at the Greek Fintech Hub
As part of his speech, the NBG chairman welcomed Amazon Web Services and Mastercard as new official partners of the Greek Fintech Hub, both of which had already supported its activities with speakers and mentors.
This year’s conference, themed “Accelerating Growth”, is broadening its international reach with participants from France and Germany, in addition to its existing links with Abu Dhabi.
Mr Hardouvelis highlighted the Hub’s role in supporting fintech entrepreneurship, facilitating access to funding and connecting university research with innovative businesses. He described innovation as a key area of National Bank of Greece’s strategy and a strategic priority for the Greek economy.
“Technology itself does not determine our future. The way we choose to develop, finance, regulate and use it is what will determine our future,” he concluded.