The final trading session of the week and of October follows a month of widespread portfolio repositioning from New York and Frankfurt to Paris and Athens. Each market had its own reasons, but a common thread was traders and investors preparing for the final two months of the year. This period traditionally favours bulls, something that remains to be confirmed — or not — from Monday 2 November.
October drew to a close with oil prices still elevated (Brent at $112.614 and Crude Oil WTI at $103.478), as were bond yields (the US 10-year at 4.9350% and the French 10-year at 4.930%), though both remained at manageable levels. With the Fed and ECB meetings now behind them, market participants have turned their attention to the US midterm elections (next Tuesday, 3 November), while also weighing third-quarter results and geopolitical developments on active fronts, chiefly Iran.
The VIX/CBOE stood at 18.27, while S&P 500 futures were down 0.39% at 7,647.25 at 11:30. The DAX stood at 26,009 (-0.16%), the CAC 40 at 7,982 (0.20%) and the EuroStoxx Banks at 276.32 (0.08%). In Athens, sellers had the upper hand during the first hour.
Orders placed before the opening were also guided by third-quarter and nine-month results. They initially focused on Eurobank, which reported quarterly results yesterday, before shifting to Alpha Bank and Piraeus, which remained in focus today.
Alpha Bank and Piraeus reported stronger results, with both management teams raising their targets for profit distributions to shareholders and investors — a development the market is gradually pricing in. Ambrosia Capital has a Buy recommendation on all four systemic banks and Bank of Cyprus. Once National Bank of Greece reports its results next Thursday, the market will presumably take a broader view and reassess positions.
Order flow was heavier from the start of the session: by the end of the first hour, turnover had topped €70 million, including €6.58 million in pre-agreed trades.
By 11:45, 16.8 million shares had traded, 9.4 million of them in banks. Orders in Alpha Bank topped 4 million shares, with the stock trading between €4.522 and €4.63. It was the only systemic bank in positive territory. All four were down for October.
The Banking Index was around 3,040 points, apparently confirming its status as a reference level ahead of November.
The FTSE 25 stood at 6,687 points (-0.40%), with sellers prevailing across most blue chips.
Coca-Cola HBC rose 2.57% to €55.90, providing some offset for long positions. The group’s management will report results next Wednesday, with many investors taking positions based on their assessment of how much has already been priced in.
Sentiment was subdued among mid- and small-caps, with buyers outnumbering sellers in only three of the 20 FTSE Mid Cap stocks: ADMIE (4.43), Fourlis, with just 234 shares traded at €3.30, and Thessaloniki Port Authority (OLTH), with a paltry five shares traded at €40.10. Shortly before noon, 40 stocks were higher and 64 lower.