TRUMP I: In Ukraine, Donald Trump is stepping up his diplomatic efforts. In Iran, by contrast, all signs point to him considering a fresh military escalation. Could these be two sides of the same strategy?
On Ukraine, after months and years of deadlock, something is moving. Zelenskyy is hoping for a trilateral meeting between the US, Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, between 6 and 10 November.
The White House, however, has already moved ahead.
Trump has already agreed with Putin to allow Russian diesel back onto the market and eased sanctions. A few days later, he also put on hold tariffs on Russian energy that he himself had signed in September.
In addition, as Reuters revealed, the Pentagon asked European governments, including the three Baltic states, to tone down their rhetoric towards Moscow.
In Europe, cracks began to appear in the united front after Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre spoke with Putin.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen reacted strongly, while her Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson was highly cautious. Media criticism was fierce in several outlets, despite the call having been coordinated with Washington and Kyiv.
What is certain is that the leadership of the EU (the familiar Kajas and Ursulas) is taking a heavy blow, as Russia and the US appear to be excluding it.
The rift in Europe is not hard to explain. In several countries, the belief is growing behind the scenes that the longer negotiations are delayed, the worse it will be for Ukraine and for Europe, which has become the largest financier of the war.
TRUMP II: In Iran, by contrast, the clouds of escalation are gathering. According to the Associated Press, Washington has warned its regional allies to be ready for possible new strikes after the midterm elections on 3 November.
A third aircraft carrier and about 9,000 sailors and marines have been sent to the Gulf. Qatar is still mediating, but the gaps remain wide: Tehran is demanding that the US naval blockade be lifted first, while Washington wants nuclear concessions first.
The real question is whether Trump wants to close, or at least freeze, the Ukraine front to leave his hands free to deal with Iran.
The links between the two wars are not only military (the consumption of munitions and much more), but economic too. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is driving up fuel prices and squeezing US consumers just before the polls.
That is why Russian diesel has suddenly become so valuable to the White House. It is also why Trump has criticised Kyiv over strikes on Russian refineries, which push prices higher.
None of this means such a plan will succeed. Putin is not going to abandon his demands over Donbas and a new security architecture in Europe, while Iran shows no sign of being willing to back down without a fight.
For Europe, however, the moment of truth over Ukraine and Russia alike appears to be drawing closer.
COUNCIL OF MINISTERS: Each minister will present the three or four main priorities for the period up to the election at today's cabinet meeting, as Kostis Hatzidakis revealed yesterday in an interview with ERTnews.
Asked what the Ministry of Environment and Energy's number one priority is, the answer is obvious: efforts to contain prices. Greece continues to press at every opportunity for fiscal flexibility, as Stavros Papastavrou did last Thursday at the Energy Council.
The question, of course, is what will happen if Europe does not respond to Greece's request. The answer is that needs will be met by whatever means possible at home, while, fortunately, PPC's highly competitive blue online fixed-price tariff will also be available in November.
For the rest, the column understands that the priorities Papastavrou will present to the cabinet today will cover both urban planning and energy issues.
These range from restructuring the Land Registry into a National Land Registry and Building Control Organisation (EOKED), alongside reform of the urban planning authorities, to public consultation on Special and Local Urban Plans for 601 municipal districts.
COUNCIL OF MINISTERS II: The picture is completed by amendments to the Mining Code and the transposition of the EU directive to improve electricity market design.
As Euro2day.gr has reported, the directive provides, among other things, for suppliers to be required to offer fixed-term contracts of at least one year, as well as protecting consumers from having their meters disconnected while a dispute-resolution process is under way.
OLYMPIACOS: For the next 49 years, through to 2075, management of the “G. Karaiskakis” stadium will pass to the club, under a provision included in the Environment and Energy Ministry's bill, which was submitted to parliament on Saturday.
Although the original version of the provision covered only the technical and urban-planning aspects of the stadium upgrade, without specifying the length of the concession, the addition was made after the consultation.
On the technical side, the provision sets out a significant increase in the stadium's capacity, from about 33,500 to 52,000 spectators, through the reconstruction and expansion of the stands, the installation of a new lightweight roof, and the allocation of at least 65% of the permitted building allowance exclusively to sports facilities and activities.
ENERGY MINISTRY: And while we are on the subject of the Environment and Energy Ministry's bill, it contained 77 articles when public consultation began. By the time it reached parliament on Saturday, however, the number had risen to 90.
Among the 13 additional articles are provisions ranging from penalties for delays in operating licences for subsidised batteries to long-term bilateral contracts (PPAs), rules for hydrogen plants and the revival of licences for wind farms, among other things.
In effect, legislation originally intended to transpose into national law the EU directive on improving electricity market design ended up regulating almost everything, from data centres and batteries to biogas and environmental issues.
SAMARAS: Close allies of Antonis Samaras, Aris Spiliotopoulos and Nikos Karahalios are sticking to the scenario being promoted by the Messinian politician's supporters: a coalition government led by New Democracy but without Kyriakos Mitsotakis as prime minister.
Mr Mitsotakis, the former government spokesman and New Democracy MP said, should do “what his father did. With 48%, we had Tzannetakis as prime minister the first time and Zolotas the second. So a government with a specific mandate could be formed now too, with New Democracy as the largest party but a different prime minister.”
Mr Karahalios went further, saying one solution would be for Mr Mitsotakis to take over Christine Lagarde's vacant post at the ECB and not stand as a candidate for prime minister.
At Maximos Mansion, any such possibility is naturally being ruled out, and officials believe similar scenarios will multiply in public debate as the polls approach.
A tough game…
AVRAMOPOULOS: As for post-election coalitions, a serving New Democracy MP—and no minor figure, but former European commissioner and minister Dimitris Avramopoulos—said he rules nothing out, including cooperation between New Democracy and Alexis Tsipras.
“I would not be opposed to seeing all the political parties finally reach an agreement the day after the election, so that we do not slide into political instability during this critical period,” he said, clarifying that he meant responsible political forces, not extremist parties.
On the possibility of cooperation between New Democracy and PASOK, he said he ruled out no scenario. Asked about the possibility of working with Alexis Tsipras, he replied: “Tsipras worked with the Right; would he hesitate to work with the centre-right?” he said, adding: “We cannot rule anything out. Exclusions and condemnations have led us into trouble.”
KARYSTIANOU: “We will take part in the election as planned; don't listen to claims to the contrary,” says Maria of Tempi, denying a report to that effect and responding to rumours circulating recently amid her low poll ratings.
“The recent report linking the ‘Hope for Democracy’ movement to a supposed decision not to take part in the forthcoming election is entirely false, unfounded and misleading.
The Movement's participation and presence in the democratic process is unquestionable and a given,” the party said in a statement, adding that it reserved the right “to exercise every right available to us to defend the truth and the Movement's institutional standing.”
BANKS: The main takeaway from the third-quarter financial statements of the systemic banks (the National Bank of Greece is still to report) is the significant increase in net interest income.
Thanks to the rise in ECB interest rates and their low-cost deposit base, domestic banks widened their net interest margins, a trend that, as current market pricing suggests, will continue over the next few quarters unless expectations for inflationary pressures and interest rates change sharply and/or retail depositors alter their behaviour.
Third-quarter net interest income exceeded analysts' forecasts, prompting upward revisions to targets for the current or next financial year.
Other notable features include the strength and resilience that revenue diversification (Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria) brings to Eurobank, further bolstered by the addition of Eurolife AEAZ, and a “more moderate” pace of credit expansion, a trend expected to continue for (at least) the first two quarters of 2027.
BANKS II: Despite strong interest income, third-quarter results and any target revisions for this year or next do not appear to be acting as a catalyst.
Given demanding valuations, investors are focused on what could go wrong with a further increase in net interest income.
There were, accordingly, several questions about the sustainability of credit expansion and the trajectory of spreads.
For example, one bank's management was asked how it would offset a potential slowdown in loan demand from ocean-going shipping companies, which this year account for a significant share of corporate lending across the banking system.
The picture is more complex for fees and commissions, as 2027 will be a year of transition for Piraeus Bank (the partnership with NN and Ergo will end and one with National Insurance will begin) and the National Bank of Greece (its partnership with National Insurance will end and one with Allianz will begin).
Mutual fund fee income is also linked to market performance.
ALPHA BANK-MUTUAL FUNDS: Mutual funds remained a key contributor to Alpha Bank's net fee and commission income.
Third-quarter revenue came to €41 million, while the nine-month total reached €115 million. Fees from lending followed, at €66 million for the nine months, and fees from transactions, at €64 million.
ALPHA BANK-PROPERTY: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, Alpha has valued its investment properties at fair value.
For the nine months, the revaluation gain came to €12 million, while total net income from investment property management reached €29 million (€21 million of which was rental income).
ALPHA BANK-BONDS: Alpha Bank's investment portfolio was valued at €19.04 billion on 30 September.
Of that total, €17.6 billion was measured at amortised cost, securities worth €1.16 billion at fair value through other comprehensive income, and just €231 million at fair value through profit or loss (of which €186 million related to shares in listed and unlisted companies).
Of the €1.16 billion measured at fair value through other comprehensive income, €0.76 billion related to Greek government bonds (€0.31 billion) and Treasury bills (€0.45 billion). Holdings in other countries' bonds amounted to €215 million.
The impact of rising yields was therefore smaller than at other banks, first because of the portfolio allocation and then its composition: Greek government bonds were less affected, while Treasury bills were unaffected.
PIRAEUS BANK: Piraeus Bank put four small portfolios of non-performing loans up for sale in the third quarter.
These are the Parthenon, Pelagos and Albus portfolios, which include business loans, and the Hydra portfolio, which includes loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, mortgages, consumer loans and other financial assets.
By classifying them as held for sale, Piraeus recognised an impairment loss of €19 million. As at 30 September, the net book value (after accumulated provisions) of loan receivables in the Parthenon portfolio was €97 million and in Pelagos €77 million.
The Albus and Hydra portfolios have very low net book values (€4 million and €8 million respectively). Additional provisions (around €50 million) for the sale of these portfolios, along with the step-ups, are among the reasons third-quarter net profit fell short of consensus
PIRAEUS BANK II: The other main reason relates to the loss in trading income from the portion of the investment portfolio (about €1.6 billion) that Piraeus holds at fair value through profit or loss.
As at 30 September, the investment portfolio stood at €21.7 billion, of which €17.8 billion was measured at amortised cost and €3.9 billion at fair value (€1.6 billion through profit or loss and €2.3 billion directly through equity).
EUROBANK: Eurobank acquired a 51% stake in Bulgarian software company CSoft JSC. The agreement was signed last February, without the company's name being disclosed, and the transaction was completed in September.
The consideration was €25 million, of which €18 million was paid on the transfer of the 51% stake.
The remaining €7 million is subject to an earn-out scheme, with payment considered highly likely within five years.
NBG: Citi estimates that the National Bank of Greece will report third-quarter 2026 net profit of €292 million (€307 million on an underlying basis), ahead of the results announcement on Wednesday, 4 November.
According to the firm's analysis, the main profit driver will be net interest income, expected to come to €571 million, while fee income is forecast at €125 million. Keeping recurring operating expenses to €252 million is expected to hold the cost-to-income ratio close to 35%.
Meanwhile, provisions for non-performing exposures are estimated at €41 million, with a cost of risk of 38 basis points. Citi forecasts an annualised return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 12.9%.
The firm made a marginal cut of 0.4% to its estimate for 2026 earnings per share, reflecting lower expectations for fees and trading, partly offset by higher net interest income.
It nevertheless maintains its Buy rating and €20 price target, against a share price of €16.15, implying upside of 23.8% and a total expected return of 28.6%, including a dividend yield of 4.8%.