According to national accounts data, private consumption in Greece — the component of total spending with the largest share of gross domestic product (GDP) — rose by 1.7% year on year in Q2 2026. This contributed 1.2 percentage points to the economy’s real growth rate.
Economic activity and sentiment data available so far point to continued growth in private consumption in the third quarter of the year. However, early signs for the fourth quarter are less favourable, mainly because inflationary pressures have intensified and consumer confidence deteriorated in October.
Retail trade
In particular, the retail trade volume index, which measures the value of sales in the sector at constant prices, rose by 5.5% year on year in July–August 2026, compared with an increase of 2.7% in Q2, pointing to an acceleration in its annual growth rate.
Among the individual store categories that make up the headline index, sales volumes rose most in furniture, electrical goods and household equipment (8.9%), large food stores (6.2%), pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (6.2%), and food, beverages and tobacco (6.2%).
More modest increases were recorded in automotive fuel and lubricants (2.2%), clothing and footwear (2.1%), and books, stationery and other goods (1.8%). By contrast, department stores recorded a marginal decline of 0.5%.
Despite the positive picture in retail trade, movements in the index should not be equated with those in real private consumption as measured in the national accounts. In addition to methodological differences in how they are calculated, private consumption includes spending on services as well as goods, which is not captured by the retail trade volume index.
Therefore, even a strong increase in goods consumption does not necessarily mean that total private consumption has risen, as its overall change also depends on movements in services consumption. Moreover, higher consumer spending does not automatically translate into an equivalent increase in GDP, since some of it may be on imported goods or goods drawn from existing stocks.
Further signs that private consumption maintained positive momentum in Q3 come from economic sentiment surveys by the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE). In particular, the retail trade confidence index rose sharply to 17.6 points in Q3, from 8.0 points in Q2, signalling an improvement in business sentiment in the sector.
Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index stood at -44.3 points, up from -53.2 points in the previous quarter, reflecting a less pessimistic outlook among households.
Overall, the acceleration in annual retail sales volume growth, combined with improved confidence among retail businesses and consumers, supports the view that private consumption retained positive momentum in Q3 2026, provided that spending on services did not offset the increase in goods consumption.
Labour market
Private consumption is influenced by a range of factors, including disposable income, interest rates, wealth and household expectations. One of the main components of disposable income is income from employment, which is determined by employment levels and pay per worker. Developments in the labour market therefore provide additional insight into the outlook for consumer spending.
According to the monthly Labour Force Survey by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), annual growth in the number of people in employment accelerated to 1.4% in Q3 2026, from 0.6% in the previous quarter, while the unemployment rate fell to 7.6%. This is a positive sign for total income from employment and, in turn, for support for private consumption.
However, the path of households’ real disposable income also depends on wages, inflation and other income components. A fuller picture of developments in the domestic labour market is expected when ELSTAT publishes its quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q3, on 4 December 2026.
Q4 outlook
Although the available data are encouraging for private consumption in Q3 2026, early signs for Q4 are less favourable. In October, driven by rising energy prices, annual inflation in Greece, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), accelerated for the third consecutive month to 5.6% (preliminary estimate), its highest level in 43 months.
At the same time, the consumer confidence index deteriorated significantly, falling to -48.9 points from -41.6 points in September. If energy prices remain high, this could, together with the already negative savings rate of Greek households (-3.9% of disposable income in 2025), even before the latest energy crisis took hold, slow the growth of private consumption and, in turn, GDP.