Greece will lose about 2.7 million residents by 2080, more than a quarter of its current population. That is the picture painted by the European Commission’s new long-term projections, published in the first volume of the Ageing Report 2027.
The report by the Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) sets the framework for projections of pension, healthcare and welfare spending. The corresponding fiscal projections will be published in spring 2027.
The figures for Greece describe a country starting from an already particularly ageing demographic base. In the coming decades, there will be fewer and fewer people of working age, while the burden of ageing will grow. Pressure is expected to be greatest around 2050, when a sharp fall in the working-age population will coincide with a rising ratio of older people to employed people.
The projections are based on current policies and legislated reforms, as well as the Commission’s demographic and macroeconomic assumptions. They are not certainties about 2080, but a common baseline scenario for comparing EU member states.
2.7 million fewer residents by 2080
The country’s population is projected to fall from 10.4 million in 2025 to 9.2 million in 2050 and just 7.6 million in 2080. The total decline reaches 26%, one of the largest in the EU. Bigger falls are recorded in Latvia (-30%), Lithuania (-28%) and Bulgaria (-27%), while Poland shows a similar percentage decline. The EU average is -8%.
Fertility edges up from 1.20 children per woman in 2025 to 1.45 in 2080. It therefore remains well below the replacement level, which is about 2.1 children per woman.
Meanwhile, life expectancy at birth rises to 86.4 years for men and 90.1 for women. Net migration falls from 41,700 people in 2025 to 13,000 in 2030, then gradually recovers to reach 30,800 in 2080.
Demographic ageing is set to intensify. The share of people aged over 65 rises from 23.9% to 34.6% of the population. The shift is even more striking among those over 80, whose share more than doubles, from 7.2% to 14.9%.
The pressure is greater still when the economically inactive population is compared with the employed. The total economic dependency ratio, which measures the inactive population of all ages against employed people aged 20-64, rises from 130.7 people per 100 employed in 2025 to 153.6 in 2050. It then eases slightly to 145 in 2080.
Similarly, the economic old-age dependency ratio, which compares the inactive population aged over 65 with employed people aged 20-64, peaks at 85.5% in 2050 and stands at 79.1% in 2080.
1.6 million fewer people in the labour force
The population decline feeds directly into the labour market. The labour force aged 20-64 falls from 4.65 million people in 2025 to 3.07 million in 2080, a loss of about 1.58 million people, or 34%.
The decline is the fourth largest in the EU, after Lithuania (-38%), Latvia (-37%) and Poland (-36%). The EU average is -17%. The number of employed people aged 20-64 falls from 4.2 million to 2.9 million.
Employment rates improve, but Greece remains below the EU average. Employment among people aged 20-64 rises from 70.5% in 2025 to 75.2% in 2080, compared with 80.2% in the EU. Greece currently has the third-lowest rate in the Union, after Italy and Romania.
Unemployment falls from 8.9% to 6.5%, but remains above the projected EU average of 4.9% in 2080.
The most significant change in the labour-market projections comes from higher participation among older age groups. Labour-force participation among people aged 55-64 rises from 63.8% to 77%, while for the 65-69 age group it almost triples, from 17.9% to 53.8%.
Of concern is that Greece is one of four EU countries, along with Czechia, Spain and Romania, where women aged 25-54 are projected to participate less in the labour force. The rate falls from 78.8% to 77.7%. This is a participation rate, not an employment rate, as it also includes women seeking work.
The upward revision to the starting point is positive, however. The 2025 employment rate is about three percentage points higher than estimated in the previous report, published in 2024. This is one of the largest upward revisions in the EU, alongside those for Czechia and Cyprus.
Second-lowest growth in the EU, alongside Portugal
The decline in population and the labour force also constrains the country’s long-term growth potential.
Greece’s potential GDP is projected to grow by an average of just 0.8% a year over 2026-2080. Only Italy has a lower rate, at 0.7%, while Portugal is level with Greece. The EU average is 1%.
Retirement age to reach 72 by 2080
One of the report’s most significant projections for Greece concerns the evolution of retirement ages. Under the current mechanism linking retirement ages to life expectancy, the Commission projects that the normal retirement age will rise from 67 today:
- To 68 in 2030, with early retirement at 63.
- To 70 in 2055, with early retirement at 65.
- To 72 in 2080, with early retirement at 67.
A retirement age of 72 would be the second-highest in the EU, after Denmark’s 74. Italy follows at 71.6.
One important clarification is needed: these are European Commission projections based on the current institutional framework and Eurostat’s demographic assumptions. They are not decisions that have already been taken to introduce specific new retirement ages.
Reforms in 2012 and 2014 raised the retirement ages from 65 to 67 for the normal pension and from 60 to 62 for early retirement. Since 2021, the rules have also provided for the retirement ages to be adjusted in line with changes in life expectancy at age 65, with a review every three years.
The adjustment has not, however, been activated to date. In 2021, the adjustment was cancelled because the pandemic caused life expectancy to fall. In 2024, the mechanism was not activated because the increase in life expectancy at age 65 compared with 2010 was less than one year. The retirement ages therefore remained at 67 for the normal pension and 62 for early retirement.
Greece and the EU in figures
| Indicator | Greece | EU |
|---|
| 2025 | 2080 | 2025 | 2080 |
|---|
| Population (millions) | 10.4 | 7.6 | 452.2 | 413.9 |
| Fertility (children per woman) | 1.20 | 1.45 | 1.30 | 1.52 |
| Population aged 65+ | 23.9% | 34.6% | 22% | 33% |
| Old-age demographic dependency ratio (people aged 65+ per 100 people aged 20-64) | 41.3 | 69.3 | 38.0 | 64.5 |
| Employment, ages 20-64 | 70.5% | 75.2% | 76.4% | 80.2% |
| Unemployment, ages 20-64 | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% |
| Potential growth, 2026-2080 average | 0.8% | — | 1.0% | — |
Source: European Commission, 2027 Ageing Report, Statistical Annex and comparative tables. Potential growth refers to the average annual rate over the full 2026-2080 period, not an individual projection for 2080.