Citi and Jefferies have both given a positive assessment of National Bank of Greece’s nine-month results and maintained their Buy recommendations on the shares. Jefferies reiterated its target price of €19.20, implying upside of about 21% from the share price of €15.89 used in its analysis.
Citi, meanwhile, described the third quarter as strong, noting that results beat estimates mainly on higher net interest income and resilient fee income. It also believes management is on track to exceed its key 2026 targets, which is expected to prompt upward revisions to market earnings estimates.
National Bank’s third-quarter net profit came to €321 million, up 9% quarter on quarter and 17% year on year. It was 5% above the average of estimates compiled by the bank and 8% above Citi’s forecast. Underlying earnings before exceptional items totalled €335 million, 5% above consensus and 6% above Citi’s estimate.
Stronger net interest income
Net interest income was a key driver of the beat, rising 6% quarter on quarter and 11% year on year to €587 million. This was 2% above market estimates and 4% ahead of Citi’s forecast, supported by higher benchmark interest rates, loan growth and the repricing of assets.
Net fee and commission income came to €128 million, up 10% year on year and 3% above estimates. Total income reached €733 million, up 14% year on year, while pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) rose to €481 million, up 17% year on year and 4% above consensus.
Recurring operating expenses came to €252 million, broadly in line with estimates.
Asset quality and capital position
Asset quality remained under control. The non-performing exposure (NPE) ratio held at 2.4%, while the coverage ratio edged down to 103% from 105% in the second quarter. The stock of NPEs remained at about €1 billion.
The cost of credit risk was 38 basis points, unchanged quarter on quarter and in line with management’s target of keeping it below 40 basis points for 2026 as a whole. Loan loss provisions and other impairments totalled €41 million, slightly below estimates.
Net loans stood at €41.6 billion, with performing loans up 13% year on year to €39.2 billion. New loan disbursements in the first nine months reached €7.9 billion, up 28% year on year, driven mainly by lending to businesses in the energy, infrastructure, shipping and tourism sectors.
Deposits rose 7% year on year to €62.3 billion, while core deposits increased by 9%.
On capital, the CET1 ratio rose by 20 basis points quarter on quarter to 17.5%, despite factoring in a distribution of 60% of profits. The total capital adequacy ratio stood at 21.2%, while the MREL ratio reached 28.7%. Management also announced an interim dividend of €0.26 per share in November.
2026 targets may be raised
Citi’s main message is that National Bank may exceed its 2026 targets. According to the firm, management expressed confidence that performance would surpass its initial forecasts for net interest income, net interest margin, the cost-to-income ratio, earnings per share and return on tangible equity (RoTE).
Loan growth is expected to remain strong, with management reaffirming its expectation that performing loans will increase by more than €3 billion in 2026. In addition, approved but undisbursed business loans of about €2.5 billion provide visibility for the period ahead.
Citi expects the momentum in net interest income, combined with loan growth and the lagged effects of asset repricing, to continue supporting profitability in the fourth quarter of 2026 and in 2027.
Jefferies, for its part, focuses on the resilience of revenues, strong loan growth and the bank’s capital position. It maintains its Buy recommendation and €19.20 target price, believing National Bank is well placed to deliver a return on tangible equity above 15%.
The two analyses share the conclusion that National Bank is entering the final quarter of the year with strong earnings momentum, while the potential to exceed its 2026 targets creates scope for upward revisions to market estimates.