The two months ahead are also critical for markets, until the new members of the US House of Representatives and Senate take office.
It is widely accepted that the “deep state” in the US operates by the book, with its safeguards, mechanisms such as the Fed, and “weapons” led by the dollar — the only international reserve currency.
For now, investors are trading on the assumption that the risk of a new round of attacks on Iran is receding, bringing oil prices down and prompting markets to price in more rational fiscal policy.
The more this pricing pattern is borne out, the more scope investors will have to reassess their strategy and reposition, shifting capital between sectors and individual companies.
S&P 500 futures are down 0.16% at 7,695 points, a move justified after Wednesday’s 1.58% gain.
In Europe, buyers maintain a modest lead, with the DAX at 26,574 (0.57%) and the CAC 40 at 8,245 (0.82%), although investors attempted to take some profits at higher prices in the first hour of trading.
Inflows and gains continue for European bank stocks, with the EuroStoxx Banks index at 294.07 (1.58%) — an uptrend that extends to Euronext Athens.
The banking sector is again in focus today, given that the upward correction began midway through Tuesday’s session, with buyers entering at the lows of 2,965 points. The significant scope for returns prompted some partial profit-taking until 12:00, when buyers stepped back in. The first orders came in at 3,161 points, followed by a range of 3,107-3,165; earlier, the banking index stood at 3,152 (1.05%).
As a reminder, of yesterday’s turnover of €436 million, about €265 million was in shares of Eurobank, National Bank of Greece, Piraeus and Alpha Bank.
After the session, a mini-placement of 35 million shares in Piraeus took place. The transaction, covering 2.8% at €9.51, went through at 10:30 at today’s open. This means the trading mix is not representative: of a total 52.8 million shares, 49.2 million were bank stocks, but 35 million were part of yesterday’s block trade by John Paulson.
Piraeus shares were at €9.884 (0.61%), Eurobank at €4.723 (2.84%), Alpha Bank at €4.772 (0.78%) and National Bank of Greece at €16.71 (0.66%).
Motor Oil shares ranked very high, with another round of selling and prices ranging from €61.75 to €59.95. Selling was also steady in HelleniQ Energy, in line with the pan-European wave of position cuts in oil and refining companies.
Coca-Cola HBC shares reversed lower, falling from an initial €60.40 to €58.10, apparently as investors took profits on gains accumulated over the previous period.
Viohalco shares were at €15.54 (1.17%), Cenergy Holdings at €21.84 (0.04%), Jumbo at €27.60 (0.51%), PPC at €23.72 (1.19%) and Athens International Airport at €12.16 (0.50%).
More than 90% of turnover remains concentrated in FTSE 25 stocks, with all that may imply for the remaining, larger group of listed companies and shares.
The tally of shares with positive/negative changes stood at 43/76 at 15:15.