BAD LOANS: Sometimes the best vindication of a column comes from where you least expect it. In this case, from the government benches!
A few days ago, under the headline “Government: First a goal, then... an own goal”, we commented on the government’s retreat in withdrawing the now notorious Article 23 on bad loans.
Above all, we noted the paradox of a provision being hastily withdrawn after objections from the opposition and the bar associations, while government officials continued to defend it as... the right thing to do!
The provision would have made debt restructuring agreements with servicers enforceable titles, without first requiring a payment order or court ruling.
Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis called the opposition’s objections a “pretext”. Deputy minister Dimitris Markopoulos threw down the... gauntlet. Other government officials tried to convince us that the withdrawal did not mean there was a problem with the provision.
Until Stratos Simopoulos appeared in parliament yesterday.
He is no ordinary MP, but the New Democracy parliamentary spokesman, who had only joined the party’s executive secretariat on 3 November, by decision of Mitsotakis.
Mr Simopoulos defended the bill, but used a particularly apt analogy. The rest of the bill was, as he put it, nutritious milk, but a... fly had fallen into it.
And what was the fly? Why, Article 23, of course!
He also acknowledged that the opposition had done its job by highlighting the problem, adding that withdrawing the contentious provision had improved the bill.
BAD LOANS II: These remarks carry particular political significance, coming as they do from someone charged with representing the governing party in parliament. And, to be fair, we give him credit for not trying to defend the indefensible.
What is interesting is that the bill was approved, with several of its provisions also winning opposition votes. This confirms that the contentious measure was not necessary for the positive measures to go ahead.
In our view, it is hardly surprising that the government tried to include this article.
It sought to pair provisions favourable to borrowers with one that would speed up legal proceedings if a borrower defaulted on an agreement.
In a sense, it was the… quid pro quo for the servicers. The state also had a stake in the matter, since through the “Hercules” programme it has provided guarantees for securitisations of bad loans that it does not want to be called on to honour.
But it had not reckoned with… the innkeepers — that is, the opposition and the legal profession, which also objected on grounds of legal principle, though some say it was also concerned about losing revenue if the prescribed procedures were scrapped.
So the fly did not... fall into the milk by itself or by accident. Some people drafted Article 23, some approved it, and some defended it even after it had been withdrawn.
And by persisting, they turned a goal into… an own goal. At least now there is a parliamentary spokesman who admits it.
PSALTIS: Alpha Bank chief executive Vassilis Psaltis appeared particularly pleased after presenting the three-year business plan to 20 foreign investors, 10 foreign analysts and the Greek investment community.
Speaking to journalists, he said the mood at the meetings with foreign investors after the presentation had been good, and several of them had found two or three assumptions — mainly those relating to macroeconomic indicators — “conservative”. But, as the bank’s CEO said, it is better to be conservative and have positive surprises.
For example, the bank estimates that GDP growth will be 1.6% in 2030. If growth were to run at 2%, the additional positive impact on Alpha Bank’s earnings could reach €150 million.
ALPHA BANK: Under the business plan target, 18% of Alpha Bank’s profits will come from its international operations in 2030.
As the column noted from the bank executives’ remarks, Cyprus is a rich source of revenue, particularly from lending and wealth management, with the economy growing at a significant pace and the island’s pockets “deep”.
The bank’s subsidiary in Luxembourg will coordinate wealth management. But the bank’s international operations are not confined to these markets, as UniCredit’s presence opens up many opportunities for synergies.
ALPHA BANK II: The business plan presentation at a central Athens hotel also had an Italian flavour. In recorded messages, three senior UniCredit executives spoke about working with Alpha Bank’s executives and management.
The common themes in their remarks were the professionalism, knowledge and reliability of the Greek bank’s executives. “We work with them at an excellent level; they are serious professionals, each in their own field, and our experience to date shows that we can do a great deal together”.
That, in broad terms, was the message from the Italians.
TITAN: The group’s nine-month financial results prompted selling. Its US operations and higher energy costs were a “drag”.
The share fell by more than 5% at one point before closing at €47.20, down 4.18%. The move ended a short run of four consecutive sessions of gains. The year’s high was €58.8 on 29 January.
Management said it now expects sales to rise by a high single-digit percentage this year and EBITDA to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage. Its expectations are underpinned by the launch of a cost optimisation programme (Project Prime) and contributions from recent acquisitions.
Titan is notably raising its Prime savings target by 50%. It now expects benefits of €150 million by 2029, compared with the €100 million initially announced.
The results presentation showed that €40 million had already been saved in the first nine months. But the same results show that the savings are not enough. The group’s organic EBITDA fell by 18% in the third quarter, with energy costs and the US weighing on it.
The company says Prime only partly offsets cost inflation. In other words, the €40 million does not translate into an equivalent increase in profits. That is why management presented a separate plan for energy.
It includes a PPA covering 50% of electricity needs in Greece, a 100 MW solar plant in Turkey from the second quarter of 2027, and an increase in the use of alternative fuels from 20% to more than 50% by 2030.
TITAN AMERICA: The US subsidiary was affected by adverse weather, cost inflation and unplanned maintenance at its Roanoke plant.
Revenue rose 5.7% year on year to $461.6 million, driven mainly by the acquisition of Keystone. The market remained subdued, however, with the average cement price falling by 1.7%, while sales volumes in Florida declined by 6.7% during the quarter.
Titan America revised its full-year 2026 forecasts downwards, now expecting revenue growth in the mid-single digits, compared with the high-single-digit growth forecast after the second quarter, and a decline in its profit margin of 250-300 basis points, against its previous estimate of a moderate fall.
Management expects housing demand to remain subdued at least until the second half of 2027.
REFINERIES: The two shares shed another part of their “war premium” on the trading floor yesterday, with pressure visible from the morning, before the “turmoil” caused by Coca-Cola.
The Republicans’ defeat in the US midterm elections raised hopes of a Washington-Tehran deal. Brent fell from $113 to $94 in just a few sessions, marking its worst week since April 2020.
But as the column has noted before, the real issue for the two refiners is not the price of crude. It is diesel margins, which surged this year because of Hormuz and Russia’s export ban. If supplies from the Gulf start flowing, the “party” in crack spreads (i.e. profit margins) will be over.
The more level-headed point to two things. Global inventories remain low. And news of strikes on Iran on Tuesday alone was enough to send Brent back to $100. At the same time, quarterly results will be “golden”, as management teams have effectively signalled in advance.
In any case, Motor Oil now stands at €59.55, down 4.64%, compared with a high of €70, leaving it 15% below that level. Helleniq Energy closed at €16.25, also down 4.64%. It is 17.3% below its high of €19.64.
QUEST: Eurobank Equities views the prospect of Uni Systems listing on Euronext Athens favourably, estimating that the move would allow Quest Holdings to realise part of its investment. The brokerage values the group’s IT operations at close to €400 million.
Specifically, it estimates the enterprise value (EV) of Quest’s IT operations at about €350 million. This valuation represents a multiple of around 10.8 times estimated 2026 EBITDA and 10 times 2027 EBITDA.
About €50 million in net cash attributable to the IT division is added to this figure, bringing the indicative total equity valuation close to €400 million.
For now, however, neither the size of the offering, the valuation at which the shares will be placed, nor the timetable for the process has been determined.
METLEN: Short positions in the share continue to unwind. It emerged that the Aggregated Net Short Position reported to the FCA had fallen to 5.74%, from 5.94% on 2 November 2026.
The reduction amounts to 286,852 shares.
Yesterday, the company of Evangelos Mytilineos announced that revenue had reached €6.2 billion, the highest ever for a nine-month period in the company’s history. Management also confirmed its guidance for EBITDA of €1.00-1.15 billion this year, as well as its medium-term target of EBITDA of €1.92-2.08 billion.