The outlook for European tourism in 2027 is positive in terms of international tourism demand, but the sector faces mounting challenges over costs and competitiveness, according to the latest report from the European Travel Commission (ETC).
Tourism Economics’ forecasts, included in the European Tourism: Trends & Prospects report for the third quarter of 2026, put growth in international tourist arrivals in Europe at 5.4% in 2027, while the corresponding growth rate for Southern and Mediterranean Europe, which includes Greece, is estimated at 5.9%.
However, the expected increase in demand is accompanied by significant shifts in travel behaviour, as pressure on European household incomes, rising energy costs and more expensive air travel are expected to influence consumer decisions.
In this environment, the ETC says destinations offering good value for money and easy access are better placed to sustain tourism demand.
Price pressures and bookings
One of the ETC’s key findings is that travellers are becoming more… price-sensitive, a trend expected to affect demand both over the winter and during 2027.
According to the report, rising energy prices are squeezing the income available for travel, while tourism businesses face higher operating costs. Air fares could also come under further upward pressure if fuel costs remain elevated.
The ETC says eurozone wage growth is expected to fall slightly short of inflation over the winter, while the household saving rate is forecast to decline by 0.8 percentage points, to 13.5%, in the fourth quarter of 2026.
At the same time, many households now have less in savings, limiting their ability to absorb higher costs. The impact on consumer spending is expected to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
In these circumstances, travellers may be more cautious about spending and delay bookings until closer to their departure date, as they seek cheaper options.
Geopolitical risks
Geopolitical developments are among the uncertainties surrounding the outlook for 2027 and could affect both travel costs and traveller confidence.
The ETC focuses in particular on restrictions linked to Middle Eastern airspace, warning that a prolonged period of disruption could mean longer flight times, higher operating costs and further problems for international air links between Europe and Asia.
Meanwhile, a prolonged disruption to oil and gas supplies could keep energy prices high, putting pressure on both tourism businesses and household budgets.
Extending the tourist season
A second important trend highlighted in the report is the gradual easing of seasonality in European tourism, with international travel flows becoming more evenly spread throughout the year.
According to the ETC’s forecasts, the gap between the share of arrivals in the third quarter, the peak season, and the first quarter, when activity is lowest, is expected to narrow to 20.4 percentage points in 2027, compared with an average of 22.5 points in 2010 - 2015.
Notably, Mediterranean destinations are seeing the strongest growth in winter demand, although from a lower base than other European regions.
The ETC attributes this trend to growing interest in winter trips to sunny destinations, while noting that the further easing of seasonality could slow towards the end of 2026 and in the first quarter of 2027.
As the report explains, some of the growth in winter demand is coming from markets where households are expected to face greater economic pressures. French travellers, in particular, have helped boost winter demand in Spain and Finland, while Italian travellers have supported the growth of winter tourism in Malta in recent years.
According to the ETC, households in both France and Italy are expected to face particularly strong economic pressures over the winter.
At the same time, the Commission notes that high temperatures during the summer could make northern European destinations more attractive, as some travellers seek out cooler climates.
According to the report, high prices and overcrowding during the peak season could also accelerate the shift in tourism demand to other times of the year.