Beta Securities describes Alpha Bank’s new «Alpha Accelerated» business plan as credible and based on execution, rather than interest rates or the macroeconomic environment.
The target of a 16% return on tangible equity and earnings per share of €0.63 in 2030 is accompanied by distributions of more than €4bn over 2027-2030, equivalent to 40% of the bank’s current market capitalisation. The first major test will be the 2028 targets.
At its Investor Day on 5 November, Alpha Bank turned a page in its investment story: moving on from balance-sheet clean-up, it is shifting to a «One Bank» model centred on the customer and requiring less capital, while setting a framework for distributions that directs a larger share of capital generation to shareholders. This is the assessment of Beta Securities in a report on the bank’s new business plan.
The 2030 targets include a normalised return on tangible equity (RoTE) of around 16%, up from around 12% in 2026; normalised earnings per share (EPS) of around €0.63, up from €0.41 before share buybacks (average annual growth of around 12%); and distributions or capital deployment of more than €4bn over 2027-2030.
«We consider the plan credible,» Beta’s analysts say, explaining that the base case assumes GDP growth slowing from 1.9% to 1.6% and interest rates remaining steady at 2.5%. Returns therefore depend on execution, not the macroeconomic environment or interest rates. The factors that could make a difference, according to Beta, are the pace of fee growth and how much of the excess capital is ultimately used for share buybacks.
Previous plan exceeded across the board
Beta says the track record of the previous plan adds to the credibility of the new one. Alpha Bank exceeded all the targets in its 2023-2025 plan: RoTE reached 13.8% in 2025, against a target of more than 12%, while organic capital generation came to €3.4bn, well above the €2.3bn target. Cumulative distributions since 2023 reached around €0.9bn, three times the commitment of around €0.3bn, while the cost-to-income ratio fell to 39% from 55% in 2022.
Table 1 – Review of the 2023-2025 plan
| Metric | 2025 target | 2025 performance | Outcome |
|---|
| Return on tangible equity (RoTE) | >12% | 13.8% | Exceeded |
| Organic capital generation since 2023 (€bn) | 2.3 | 3.4 | Exceeded |
| Tangible equity (€bn) | >7.0 | 7.6 | Exceeded |
| Earnings per share (€) | >0.30 | 0.36 | Exceeded |
| Cumulative distributions since 2023 (€bn) | ~0.3 | ~0.9 | Exceeded |
| Cost-to-income ratio (2022 → 2025) | – | 55% → 39% | – |
Source: Alpha Bank (Investor Day, 5 November 2026), Beta Securities
Growth is front-loaded, with 2028 as the «test»
The new plan is front-loaded and rests on conservative assumptions: real GDP growth slowing from 1.9% in 2026 to 1.6% in 2030, inflation easing to 2.1% and three-month Euribor holding steady at 2.5%. Earnings per share are expected to grow by around 16% a year through 2028 and by around 12% a year over the period as a whole.
The 2028 targets of RoTE of around 14.5% and EPS of more than €0.54 represent, according to Beta, the first test of execution. Net profit is forecast to reach around €1.2bn in 2028 and more than €1.4bn in 2030, up from around €0.92bn in 2026.
Beta notes that the 2028 RoTE target is calculated with a CET1 ratio below 14% and is therefore not normalised for excess capital. The 2030 target of 16% is based on a CET1 ratio of 13% and still includes the drag from the deferred tax asset (DTA). Management says the gradual elimination of this drag will add more than 50 basis points a year to RoTE after 2030, with no change in profitability.
Table 2 – «Alpha Accelerated» targets
| Metric | 2026E | 2028 | 2030 | Change 2026-30 |
|---|
| Performing loans (€bn) | >46 | >52 | >58 | ~6% a year |
| Deposits (€bn) | >59 | ~62 | ~68 | +€9bn |
| Net interest income (€bn) | ~1.80 | ~2.15 | >2.30 | ~6% a year |
| Net fees (€bn) | ~0.60 | ~0.72 | ~0.85 | ~9% a year |
| Net profit (€bn) | ~0.92 | ~1.2 | >1.4 | – |
| Cost-to-income ratio | ~38% | ~35% | ~34% | -4 pp |
| Cost of risk (bps) | ~50 | <50 | ~45 | – |
| NPE ratio | ~3.8% | – | ~2% | – |
| CET1 | ~14% | <14% | ~13% | – |
| Earnings per share, before buybacks (€) | ~0.41 | >0.54 | ~0.63 | ~12% a year |
| RoTE | ~12% | ~14.5% | ~16% | +4 pp |
| DTC as % of CET1 | ~40% | ~19% | <5% | – |
| Cash payout ratio | 30% | 40% | 40% | – |
Source: Alpha Bank (Investor Day, 5 November 2026), Beta Securities
Revenue is growing faster than costs
Loan growth is estimated at around €3bn a year (average annual loan growth of around 6%), mainly from wholesale banking. Two-thirds will come from domestic customers and one-third from international operations and shipping.
Net interest income is forecast to exceed €2.3bn in 2030. The net interest margin improves by around 25 basis points, from 2.23% to 2.47%, thanks to the asset mix rather than interest rates, despite lending margins narrowing by around 20 basis points. Slower growth over 2028-2030 reflects the fading boost from interest rates and the fact that reinvestment of the bond portfolio (around €3bn of maturities, yielding around 150 basis points more) takes place early.
Fees are the main driver of the shift in the revenue mix and are expected to grow by around 9% a year, reaching €0.85bn (around 26% of revenue) and rising from 0.7% to 0.9% of average assets. Asset management and corporate payments will lead the way.
Overall, revenue is expected to grow by around 7% a year, from approximately €2.5bn to around €3.3bn in 2030, while costs will rise by around 4%, to €1.1bn. Around half of the increase in costs is discretionary and can be adjusted in line with revenue. The cost-to-income ratio falls to 34%.
Through artificial intelligence, the bank is targeting recurring gross benefits of around €100m a year by 2030, split equally between revenue and costs. On asset quality, the cost of risk remains below 50 basis points and falls to around 45 basis points in 2030, while the non-performing exposure ratio declines from 3.8% to around 2%.
Table 3 – Assumptions for the Greek economy
| Base case | 2026E | 2028 | 2030 |
|---|
| Real GDP growth | ~1.9% | ~1.8% | ~1.6% |
| Inflation | ~3.8% | ~2.4% | ~2.1% |
| Unemployment | ~8.8% | ~8.0% | ~7.0% |
| Three-month Euribor | ~2.3% | ~2.5% | ~2.5% |
| Credit growth (€bn) | ~9 | ~8 | ~8 |
| New deposits and AuM (€bn) | ~10 | ~8 | >8 |
Source: Alpha Bank (Investor Day, 5 November 2026), Beta Securities
Management argues that the targets depend on execution, not the macroeconomic environment. For example, 2% growth would add around €0.04 to 2030 earnings per share.
From products to the overall customer relationship
As part of its strategy, the bank is creating a Universal Business Bank, with one relationship manager for each business customer. Management estimates that this will increase cross-selling to existing borrowers by 30%.
Investment banking offers significant potential: around three-quarters of large corporate customers with substantial loan exposure do not yet use Alpha’s related services, a gap AXIA is expected to address with its advisory and capital markets services.
Wealth management and insurance are central to the shift towards activities that use less capital. Luxembourg, where operations will begin in 2027, is becoming the international wealth management hub, with the aim of organically increasing international assets under management from around €0.8bn to more than €4bn.
International operations are expected to contribute around 18% of group earnings in 2030. In Cyprus, management is targeting loan growth of around 13% a year, which, deputy CEO Lazaros Papagarifallou said, requires market-share gains. Alpha already accounts for around 11% of new lending in Cyprus, compared with a loan market share of around 5%. UniCredit, meanwhile, serves as a «gateway» for Greek businesses in 13 countries and as a source of product expertise.
More than €4bn for shareholders
Cumulative distributions over 2027-2030 will exceed €4bn, equivalent to around 40% of the bank’s current market capitalisation and four times the total for 2023-2025. They comprise around €2bn in cash dividends and around €2bn of additional headroom, which will be assessed annually and returned either in cash or through share buybacks.
The cash payout ratio rises from around 28% in 2025 to 40% by 2028, while management confirmed a total payout of 55% for 2026 (a 30% cash dividend and 25% to be split between cash and buybacks).
The CET1 ratio is forecast to stand at around 14% in 2026, below 14% in 2028 and at 13% in 2030. Without distributions, profits would lift the ratio to around 22%, creating around nine percentage points of capital for distribution or deployment. Capital quality will also improve: deferred tax credits (DTC) will fall from around 40% of CET1 to around 19% in 2028 and below 5% in 2030. The benefit from the DTA, worth around €1.3bn, will be recognised at around €300m a year through 2029 and around €400m in 2030.
If the additional headroom is used exclusively for share buybacks at €4.51, 2030 earnings per share could rise by as much as €0.14, to around €0.77 (average annual growth of around 17%). Management said it has no preference between cash and buybacks.
On acquisitions, the bank is considering only small, complementary deals, mainly in fee-generating, low-capital «product factories». Deals must deliver a higher return than buybacks, with a margin of safety, and boost earnings per share within two to three years. There is no permanent acquisition reserve.
Beta also clarifies the capital generation figures: the presentation cites €6.9bn for 2027-2030 (€5.6bn from earnings, including the add-back of technology operating expenses, plus €1.3bn from DTA). The €7.3bn figure in the press release also includes around €0.4bn of excess CET1 at the end of 2026 and refers to total capital capacity, not capital generation, despite the reference to «2026-2030».
What management said in response to analysts’ questions
During the question-and-answer session, management explained that it had kept Euribor steady at 2.5% as a reasonable long-term average. The static sensitivity of net interest income is €23m for every 25 basis points, and is expected to rise as the balance sheet grows towards €125bn.
On the CET1 ratio, there is no commitment to reach 13% as early as 2028: the ratio will be below 14% in 2028, with the commitment to 13% applying to 2030. Deposit growth of around €9bn does not depend on market-share gains, while the shift in household savings towards mutual funds is expected to continue.
Finally, acquisitions in Cyprus’s insurance sector add around 2% to earnings per share, with insurance assets under management growing by around 15% a year.
Table 4 – The «hidden levers» outside the base case
| Factor | Management estimate |
|---|
| Share buybacks using additional headroom | Up to +€0.14 in 2030 EPS (~€0.77) |
| Stronger growth (GDP at 2%) | ~+€0.04 in 2030 EPS |
| Higher Euribor | +€23m net interest income per 25 bps |
| RPL purchases / more SRTs | Not quantified |
| DTA drag eases after 2030 | >50 bps a year in RoTE |
Source: Alpha Bank (Investor Day, 5 November 2026), Beta Securities
Beta’s assessment
The plan combines fee growth in low-capital businesses, loan expansion and positive operating leverage, while returning excess capital to shareholders, Beta says. It considers the plan credible because the key return targets do not depend on interest rates or the macroeconomic environment.
The first test will be meeting the 2028 targets. Investors should then monitor the annual decisions on additional distributions and buybacks, as well as progress on fees. Any benefit from a stronger macroeconomic environment, RPL purchases or SRTs is outside the base case.
Table 5 – Milestones for investors to watch
| Milestone | Indicator | Timing |
|---|
| 2028 targets | RoTE ~14.5%, EPS >€0.54, CET1 <14% | 2028 financial year |
| Fee growth | Growth of ~9% a year, towards ~0.9% of average assets | Quarterly |
| Cash dividend | From 30% (2026) to 40% by 2028 | Annually |
| Additional distributions | Size and mix of cash and buybacks | Annually |
| Capital quality | DTC/CET1 at ~19% by 2028 | Annually |
Source: Beta Securities
Based on the closing price of €4.68 on 5 November, Alpha Bank is valued at €10.52bn, with a price-to-tangible-book-value ratio of 1.33 times and a price-to-earnings ratio (annualised) of 11.4 times.