Eurobank Equities is resuming coverage of Ideal Holdings with a Buy recommendation and a price target of €7.50 per share. It believes recent moves to restructure ownership of the group’s core holdings strengthen shareholders’ ability to capture a larger share of the portfolio’s growth and cash flows.
Based on its price target, the broker sees 38.6% upside. Combined with an estimated dividend yield of 5.5%, this implies a total estimated return of 44.2%.
According to the report, Attica’s listing on the stock exchange in July 2026 freed up more than €50 million in liquidity at Kymora, the holding company that includes Byte, Attica and Barba Stathis. At the same time, control of a high-quality, productive asset in the retail sector was retained.
Also considered pivotal is Ideal’s acquisition of the remaining 25% of Kymora, held by OHA, for €119 million. Following the transaction, Ideal effectively owns 100% of Byte and Barba Stathis and 70.1% of Attica, increasing its economic interest in the companies’ profits and cash flows. The full benefits of the new ownership structure are expected to become apparent from 2027.
Growth and profitability
Eurobank Equities forecasts that the portfolio’s comparable EBITDAaL will rise from €58 million in 2025 to about €92 million in 2030, representing average annual growth of around 10%. The EBITDAaL margin is also expected to improve from 11.3% to about 12.5%.
The food business is expected to lead growth, with EBITDA forecast to rise by about 13% a year in 2025-2028. Investment in production capacity and operational improvements are expected to boost profitability and margins.
In the IT sector, where Uni Systems and Byte are among the companies operating, the broker forecasts annual EBITDA growth of about 10%. Growth is expected to be supported by cybersecurity services, digital trust solutions and a gradual improvement in the mix of services provided.
For Attica, EBITDA is forecast to grow by about 8% a year, driven by improved store productivity and selective network expansion. The broker’s forecasts, however, incorporate a modest decline in profit margins.
Cash flows and dividends
Despite the significant cost of acquiring OHA’s stake, Eurobank Equities believes cash generation by the portfolio companies will enable Ideal to continue making distributions to shareholders and gradually reduce its debt.
Specifically, the broker’s model puts net debt at about €123 million at the end of 2026, or roughly twice adjusted EBITDAaL. For 2027-2030, it forecasts cumulative operating cash flows of more than €200 million, more than covering estimated investment spending of about €107 million.
Based on the report’s assumptions, Ideal will be able to maintain annual distributions of about €20 million, equivalent to a dividend yield of around 6%. The ratio of net debt to EBITDAaL is expected to fall to about one times by 2030, provided there are no further acquisitions.
The City Link issue
The broker notes that the unresolved legal dispute between PICAR and the Army Share Fund over the lease of the City Link building has created uncertainty around Attica’s landmark location, weighing on investor sentiment towards both the subsidiary and Ideal.
Since Attica’s stock market listing in July, its shares have fallen by about 12%, as has Ideal’s, despite resilient retail performance. Eurobank Equities takes no view on the outcome of the legal proceedings, but notes that a solution providing long-term visibility over City Link could remove a significant source of uncertainty and act as a catalyst for a recovery in both shares.