NBG Securities sees 30% upside for Star Bulk Carriers shares, initiating coverage of the shipping company with an Outperform rating and a price target of €33.10, compared with a current price of €25.40.
In its inaugural analysis, the brokerage highlights Star Bulk’s position among the world’s largest listed dry-bulk shipping companies, with a fleet of 133 vessels and five additional Kamsarmax newbuildings due to be delivered in the second half of 2026. Once all the vessels have been delivered, the fleet will comprise 138 ships with total capacity of around 13.8 million dwt.
NBG Securities says the fleet’s mix of vessel classes, operational flexibility and economies of scale enable the company to benefit from rising freight rates while limiting its dependence on particular vessel classes or commodities.
Profit recovery
The brokerage forecasts a strong recovery in financial performance in 2026, following a weak 2025. Specifically, it expects EBITDA to rise by 126% to $685 million, while net profit is forecast to reach $490 million, up 482%.
For 2027, it forecasts EBITDA of $649 million and net profit of $460 million. For 2028, the respective estimates fall to $523 million and $341 million, reflecting the normalisation of freight rates.
Despite the gradual easing in profitability, free cash flow generation is expected to remain strong, supporting generous shareholder distributions. NBG Securities forecasts a dividend of $3.81 per share for 2026, $3.86 for 2027 and $2.82 for 2028, equivalent to dividend yields of 13.5%, 13.7% and 10%, respectively.
Dry-bulk market
The analysis says the dry-bulk market has favourable medium-term prospects, as vessel supply is constrained by a low orderbook, regulatory restrictions and limited shipyard availability.
On the demand side, resilient trade in major commodities, longer shipping distances and the diversification of trade flows are supporting tonne-mile demand, although the market’s trajectory remains dependent on global economic activity and, above all, China.
To value Star Bulk, NBG Securities uses a net asset value (NAV) model that takes into account vessel type and age, alongside valuation multiples of 6.2 times EV/EBITDA and an 8.6% dividend yield.
Potential share-price catalysts include freight rates remaining at elevated levels, stronger demand for commodities from China and constraints on capacity supply. Further interest-rate cuts, value-accretive acquisitions and lower debt could also have a positive impact.