The countdown to the election is now under way, and the government faces a two-sided picture in the polls.
On the one hand, ND retains a clear lead and a substantial margin over its political rivals; Kyriakos Mitsotakis continues to lead on who is best suited to be prime minister, and the opposition has so far been unable to put forward a convincing alternative for government. On the other, the erosion in support for the government remains pronounced compared with 2023, public discontent has not eased and the cost of living remains Maximos Mansion’s biggest headache.
Broadly speaking, that is also the message of a new MARC poll for ANT1. In voting intention, the governing party scores 27.2%, compared with 14% for EL.A.S. and 11% for PASOK. In the estimate of the election result, ND rises to 30.5%, putting it 14.7 percentage points ahead of Alexis Tsipras’s party. This is a clear polling advantage, allowing the governing party to retain the political initiative, although it remains some way from its goal of winning an outright majority.
At Maximos Mansion, officials view it positively that the combined share of the second- and third-placed parties remains below ND’s, while Kyriakos Mitsotakis also maintains a significant lead over his political rivals on who is best suited to be prime minister. He scores 30.6%, with Alexis Tsipras on 14.2% and Nikos Androulakis well behind on 7.4%.
Government officials say this picture takes on particular political significance because the government is already in the eighth year of its term, having faced successive crises and inevitable political attrition. That was the point Kyriakos Mitsotakis chose to make in a recent interview, noting pointedly that after 7.5 years in government, “this is not a bad position for ND to be in”.
A relationship of trust
However, the other side of the polling picture is much more challenging. 63.5% view the government negatively or somewhat negatively, compared with just 36% who express a positive view. Even more concerning for the government team is that discontent extends into its own electoral base, with 30% of those who voted for ND in 2023 now giving it a negative or somewhat negative rating. In effect, the governing party remains in the lead, but has not managed to rebuild a relationship of trust with a significant proportion of its voters.
The cost of living remains the public’s biggest concern, with 55% saying it should be the government’s top priority in the period ahead. The finding confirms that, despite government interventions and support measures, everyday life remains the main test of the government’s effectiveness.
The prime minister also acknowledged in the same interview, at the Proto Thema conference, that people have problems and expect solutions from the government. He noted that “we are not magicians”, but said the effort was to use every available euro to support society fairly.
Adding to the negative findings is the widespread disenchantment with political debate. Some 83.4% say they are little or not at all satisfied with the way it is conducted, while the government is held primarily responsible for its toxic tone (51.7%). This points to a problem that concerns not only the governing party but the political system as a whole, although the government bears the largest share of the blame.
The prime minister’s message is that the battle will not be decided by today’s polls, but by the government’s ability to complete its work and convince voters of its plan. As he put it, the priority is to explain what ND would like to do if voters trust it again, as well as to complete initiatives already under way, both projects and legislative measures.
Government sources also point out that the polls did not predict the election result in either 2019 or 2023. They argue that even two weeks before election day, the polls had ND at lower levels than it ultimately achieved.
“Why shouldn’t the good thing happen for a third… time?” is the rhetorical question posed by one of the prime minister’s interlocutors.