The Abeille Marengo is heading towards Karpathos, where it began surveying international waters yesterday, to scan the seabed on the return leg of the route before setting off for the second phase of surveys towards Cyprus.
According to information from sources familiar with the matter, as well as data from Marine Traffic, the vessel is moving south-east of Karpathos towards the island. In other words, it is heading back towards the point where it began surveying yesterday, scanning the seabed at the same very slow speed of 0.5 knots.
That is because each planned bathymetric survey section has two phases, “there and back”: the same line is mapped in both directions so that work along the selected route can be completed.
This in turn means that work in the zone is expected to be completed within the next 24 hours, after which the vessel will set sail for the second leg of the surveys, covering the route to Cyprus.
Looking at the bigger picture, the situation remains unchanged, with no significant developments. The warships continue to monitor the Abeille Marengo from a distance, remaining stationed in the area just as they were when the surveys began.
Both the Turkish frigate TCG Gökova, which yesterday read out a statement over the radio saying “you are sailing in an area of the Turkish continental shelf and have consent to continue your voyage”, and the frigate Limnos, which replied that the vessel was sailing in the Greek continental shelf and conducting surveys under the NAVTEX issued by Heraklion Station, are monitoring the vessel from a distance as it returns towards Karpathos.
On the information available so far, the best-case scenario appears to be unfolding: behind-the-scenes Franco-Turkish consultations, together with US messages to Ankara, seem to have borne fruit. The seabed surveys are proceeding as planned, without even Turkish radio calls (hailing) seeking the vessel’s identifying details and information about the surveys it is conducting — a scenario that had seemed the most likely until just a few days ago.
Aside from yesterday’s initial call, there has been no further communication between the Turkish warship and the Abeille Marengo.
Laying the cable
At a later stage, not too far off, it will be time to lay the cable, and it remains to be seen what happens. It is a demanding process that is not expected to be completed before the end of 2028, and will require everything to be done from scratch, so nothing can be taken for granted.
This is because laying a cable requires a second phase of permit approvals, as it involves work on the continental shelf as well. That means an even more demanding behind-the-scenes diplomatic effort may be needed than at present.