After successive years of historically high performance, Greek tourism enters 2026 with increased uncertainty, as the geopolitical disruption in the Middle East highlighted the sensitivity of one of the key links in the tourism chain: air transport.
However, according to the new issue of the study series "Business Trends" by the Economic Analysis Division of the National Bank, the sector maintained expectations of an upward year even at the peak of the crisis, confirming the resilience of tourism demand. The finding is encouraging, but not reassuring: as geopolitical and energy disruptions become more frequent and persistent, the preventive management of air risk is evolving into a critical element of the country's tourism strategy.
In this environment, the NBG's annual Business Conditions Survey of Greek hotels takes on particular importance, as it was conducted at the height of the crisis, during the April-May period. The main message is that, even at the point of maximum uncertainty, the sector's expectations remained positive, pointing to a 3% increase in sales in 2026, compared with 4.5% in 2025. This estimate even appears conservative, as since then the sector's confidence index has been improving, in line with the normalization of conditions.
The positive picture is also consistent both with international estimates for European tourism, which point to a 3%-4% increase in 2026, and with air traffic at Greek airports, where flights for the May-August period are moving upward by 3.6%, compared with about 1.6% in Europe.
However, the positive picture does not mean that Greek tourism remained unaffected by the geopolitical and energy disruption. The rise in oil prices, which peaked in April at 120 dollars per barrel, increased the cost of air transport, with aviation fuel prices doubling, while also strengthening inflationary pressures in Europe, limiting disposable income in the main source markets.
The NBG survey confirms that Greek hotel businesses had greater exposure to the effects of the crisis compared with the rest of the business sector: 80% reported cost pressure and nearly half acknowledged impacts on demand and investment planning, compared with 70% and 30% respectively across SMEs as a whole.
The fact that the crisis did not ultimately turn into a serious disruption is due, to a large extent, to the fact that certain characteristics of the Greek tourism model functioned supportively in the specific circumstances.
The high dependence on European markets (about 90% of overnight stays from abroad, compared with about 80% in the Mediterranean) and the emphasis on the "sun-sea" product strengthened demand, as European tourists showed an increased willingness for summer leisure travel to Mediterranean destinations.
More critical, however, was the third structural parameter: air connectivity. Due to the low domestic base and the geographical distance from the main markets, a prolonged disruption in air transport could hit Greek tourism disproportionately.
Ultimately, this risk did not materialize: the initial fears of fuel shortages were not confirmed, while the price spike was brief and occurred during a period that allowed airlines to absorb part of the pressure through cost-hedging strategies.
The lesson of the current circumstances is that, in an environment of more frequent geopolitical and energy upheavals, the management of air risk must become a critical tool of tourism policy. To capture the sector's sensitivity to a longer-lasting disruption, the study examines indicative scenarios for the next tourist season.
In a low-pressure scenario, with oil prices close to 80 dollars per barrel until the first half of 2027, compared with 70 dollars in 2025, the pressure on tourism demand could approach 2 percentage points. In a scenario of prolonged disruption, with an average price close to 100 dollars per barrel, the pressure could reach 5.5 percentage points.
This need becomes more important as the effort to transform the Greek tourism model is already underway. On the part of the state, interventions are being promoted in chronic weaknesses, such as spatial planning and infrastructure.
On the part of the sector, greater maturity is also being recorded, as nearly half of hotels view positively the contribution of the resilience fee to the upgrading of local infrastructure, while at the same time moving more proactively to capitalize on demand from distant markets.
In this context, air connectivity must be protected proactively, through a clear crisis management framework, with objective triggers, pre-agreed response protocols, and the possibility of targeted, temporary interventions where required.
Without fortified air connectivity, the broader efforts to upgrade the country's tourism model risk remaining exposed at the first link in the chain - namely the one over which the country has the least direct control.
The study can be found on the website of the Group of the National Bank, in the section Economic Studies and Analyses (Category Greek Entrepreneurship – Business Trends):
https://www.nbg.gr/el/omilos/meletes-oikonomikes-analuseis/elliniki-epixeirimatikotita/taseis-tou-epixeirein