The second issue of the Quarterly bulletin on private debt in the Greek economy was published by the Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE), with the support of CEPAL. The bulletin provides a systematic and comprehensive overview of developments in private debt in Greece, while simultaneously taking into account the broader macroeconomic and financial environment.
Emphasis is placed on the real estate market and its interaction with private debt, making use of data and analyses provided by ReDataset.
In the first half of 2026, global economic activity slowed, amid war in the Middle East, which sent energy prices and uncertainty soaring, bringing back broader inflationary pressures. The Greek economy grew annually by 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 0.3% on average in the Eurozone, supported by fixed investments and exports. At the same time, economic challenges continue to exist, such as core and headline inflation, weak household savings, and the high current account deficit.
The real estate market remained dynamic in the first quarter of 2026 with rising prices, while housing affordability constraints remain intense. Construction activity continued steadily, while inflation in material costs slowed.
Housing prices increased further during the 1st quarter of 2026, supported by real estate investment and foreign direct investment that reached record levels, with one-bedroom homes recording the strongest increases (5–8%).
Mortgage loan disbursements accelerated, although they remain at low levels, while the largest part of mortgage debts is under the management of servicers. Property auctions slowed slightly in the first quarter of 2026, with about 1 in 7 scheduled auctions being completed.
The total amount of private debt continued to increase at the end of 2025, although its non-performing share is gradually declining. Total private debt (to financial institutions, tax authorities and social security institutions) increased to €417.0 billion in the 4th quarter of 2025 (168% of GDP), due to the increase in performing credit and the further accumulation of overdue obligations to the public sector.
Overdue debts remain at high levels, at €237.8 billion, although their share in total private debt declined to 57.0%. Overdue debts to the public sector (AADE and EFKA) dominate, amounting to €165.2 billion (69% of overdue debts). Total private debt in loans amounted to €251.9 billion, driven mainly by business loans. Non-performing loans held by banks and servicers have stabilized at around 30% of total loans, with servicers now holding 92% of non-performing loans.
The special topic of the second issue analyzes the evolution of old-age pensions in Greece during the period 2019–2025, by pension level and age of beneficiaries, highlighting the impact of inflation.
It is found that the average old-age pension remained broadly stable in real terms during the period 2019–2025, alongside the aging of the pensioner population (89% of pensioners are over 65 years old) and the reduction of the gap between public and private sector pensions, as the average pension of public employees decreased in real terms, while the average pension of private sector employees remained unchanged in real terms.
Expectations for higher interest rates during the second half of 2026 and households’ expectations for further increases in housing prices constitute challenges to the prospects for faster repayment of overdue private debts.
* See the report in the Accompanying Material Column.