An increase in the number of wind turbines instead of a decrease, greater visual disturbance instead of less, and higher electricity costs, is what the market says the imminent establishment during July of the new Spatial Plan for RES threatens to bring.
This is its main message regarding the new roadmap for renewables, which introduces such generalized and horizontal restrictions, that, according to a study by the Hellenic Scientific Association of Wind Energy (ELETAEN), whose members include small and large players, it excludes 61% of the territory from new investments in wind turbines, as the map shows.
What the market says is that such an extensive exclusion not only does not serve the goal of rational siting of RES, but also leads to exactly opposite results from those sought, negating the very philosophy of the new Spatial Plan, for which the consultation was completed last week and is on its way to final approval by the Ministry of Environment and Energy.
* By banning wind investments in 2/3 of the territory, the average productivity of new wind farms on the mainland is also reduced by 29%, according to the ELETAEN study, which was presented yesterday at a meeting with journalists.
* Since these new parks will have reduced productivity, the study shows that they will produce less energy and at a 27% higher cost (Levelized Cost of Energy, LCOE), with all that this implies for the country's overall energy cost.
* If, on the other hand, the average wind turbine produces 29% less energy, 29% more wind turbines will have to be installed in Greece for Greece to meet its RES targets. Accordingly, more interventions in space will also be required for the installations and infrastructure.
“All this carries the risk that instead of local reactions de-escalating, the opposite will probably happen, nullifying the main argument for the new restrictions of the Spatial Plan as well. At the same time, when production decreases, the increase in cost is simple mathematics,” said the President of ELETAEN, Panagiotis Ladakakos, speaking about the contradictions of the new framework.
In reality, the criticism leveled at the government is that, going through a pre-election year and seeing a generalized wave of reactions against wind power, it chose to bring the new Spatial Plan now - the relevant decision to replace the existing one from 2008 had been postponed for years - introducing extremely strict restrictions, which are observed almost nowhere in Europe, by common admission of energy market executives, not only from this specific sector.
“In essence, in this way the bad-faith reaction against wind power is legitimized, and indeed at a time of renewed flare-up of fake news about RES,” as Mr. Ladakakos observed.
At this juncture, while the Ministry of Environment and Energy is still reading the consultation comments and examining possible changes - unknown which ones - the wind market is calling on the ministry, before any decision that will set the rules of the game for the next 15-20 years, to proceed with a detailed, accurate and independent assessment of the quantitative impacts that the new restrictions will have. On electricity bills, energy security, the environment and other critical parameters.
The 3 horizontal exclusions
In summary, the horizontal exclusion zones of the new Spatial Plan pending approval concern:
- Areas with an altitude above 1,200 meters, even though the wind potential in mainland Greece is located mainly in mountainous areas. “However, there is no other significant European RES market where a horizontal altitude cap applies,” according to the Association's General Director, Panagiotis Papastamatiou. The sector is asking for the areas with the best wind potential to be exempted.
- Islands with an area below 300 sq. km, excluding all rocky islets and exempting only 13 islands. If the Spatial Plan bans for Tourism are also taken into account, 11 islands remain where wind farms can be installed. It is considered certain that these 11 islands too will request the same treatment as the rest. The sector is asking for the limit to be lowered to 100 sq. km.
- Special Protection Areas (SPAs), which are protected areas for birdlife. In practice, these are the areas with the strongest wind potential in Greece, which is why they are a passage for migratory birds that use the strong updrafts to cover long distances. The new Spatial Plan stipulates that wind turbines are allowed in these areas only if two conditions are cumulatively met. The respective Special Environmental Study must allow them (something that almost never happens) and the wind potential must be greater than 7.5 meters per second.
They are not only sold, they are also bought
Responding, however, to whether all the above will hurt the competitiveness of wind power in Greece, especially when in recent years foreign players have withdrawn from the domestic market, ELETAEN's General Director commented that apart from sale listings, we are also seeing a continuous barrage of purchases.
“Even when a foreign group decides to withdraw from the Greek market or reduce its exposure to it, there is always someone else, Greek or foreign, to buy its portfolio. This means that the international market attributes value to wind energy and RES in general in Greece, something that the government should take very seriously into account in the design of the Spatial Plan,” Mr. Papastamatiou said.
Against the above, the Ministry of Environment and Energy counters that the country has licensed far more wind projects than it needs, including a large volume of 15 GW of projects that have received environmental terms and which are not affected by the new framework, therefore they can proceed normally.
For its part, the market argues that such numbers are misleading. According to ELETAEN, of the 15 GW of wind power referred to by the Ministry of Environment and Energy, 5.5 GW are already installed, so around 9 GW remain, of which only 3 GW have connection offers, that is, are mature for implementation.
At the same time, it recalls the slow-moving licensing procedures for wind power, where the average success rate does not exceed 3.5% (according to earlier estimates), while adding that the narrative of Greece in the role of exporter of clean energy, which the government advertises at every opportunity, makes sense at night. When wind farms produce and a country has stored cheap energy in batteries, not at noon, when everyone in the neighborhood by now, from North Macedonia to Bulgaria and Romania, is producing green megawatt-hours.