Zero hour for the Vertical Corridor, crucial test in Washington

Summary

Carrying in their luggage a positive result after a long time in the Vertical Corridor auctions, but with many issues still unresolved, those involved in the difficult challenge of creating a"fast lane" forAmerican LNG from the Aegean to Ukraine are arriving today at the two-day meeting in Washington.

All eyes are on the meetings that the Greek delegation will have today at the ministerial meeting organized by the White House and the National Energy Security Council on the Vertical Corridor, with the participation of 12 countries involved, in the presence of high-ranking officials from the EU, American banks (DFC, Exim), major energy companies from the US and the EU, and headed by the Greek delegation led by Minister of Environment and Energy Stavros Papastavrou.

It is certainly a positive sign that during yesterday's auction for capacity allocation in the Vertical Corridor in March, there was strong interest in the entry point via Revythousa, with DEPA securing 98% of the quantity (25 GWh) on behalf of Atlantic SEE LNG Trade (the joint venture with Aktor), activating the contract with Ukraine's Naftogaz.

What is changing now

But in order for the Vertical Corridor project to really get off the ground, the many "teething problems"that plague it must first be remedied - expensive tariffs, numerous regulatory obstacles, lack of strong support from the EU—in order for it to become a competitive route for transporting American gas from Greece to the North.

The latest updated data available to all those present show that the tariffs for transporting American gas to Ukraine, after this year's discounts by the operators of the transit countries, are set at €4.4/MWh via Poland and €4.7/MWh from Croatia via Hungary, compared to €7/MWh from Greece via Revithoussa and just under €9/MWh via FSRU Alexandroupolis.

Today's meeting, entitled "Transatlantic Gas Security Summit,"will bring together managers and senior executives from the elite of the Greek energy market, specifically the CEOs of Aktor, Alexandros Exarchou, DEPA's Konstantinos Xifaras, DEI's George Stassis, Metlen's Head of International Energy Supply & Trading Panagiotis Kanellopoulos, as well as the CEOs of Gastrade Konstantinos Sifnaios and DESFA Maria Sferoucha.

On the American side, participants will include senior executives from Cheniere Energy, Woodside Energy, Venture Global, Glenfarne, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Sempra Infrastructure, as well as names such as Bechtel and Baker Hughes from the supply, construction, and large project management sectors.

All eyes are naturally on tomorrow's meeting between Mr. Papastavrou and his counterpart, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and the head of the powerful US National Energy Security Council, Doug Bergham, as well as members of the powerful US National Energy Security Council, Doug Bergham, as well as members of the powerful US National Energy Security Council, Doug Bergham, as well as members of the powerful US National Energy Security Council, Doug Bergham, as well as members of the powerful US National Energy Security Council, Doug Bergham, as well as members of the powerful US National Energy Security Council, Chris Wright and the head of the powerful US National Energy Security Council, Doug Bergham, as well as members of the US Congress and Senate, with the Vertical Corridor as the main item on the agenda.

The potential deals, the "thorns," the Commission's stance

On the question of whether the two-day meeting will be accompanied by new long-term LNG supply agreements with customers from Eastern and Central Europe, such as those announced by Mr. Exarchou for quantities of up to 15 bcm, with a duration of 20 years, as well as whether these will be binding or at the level of an MoU (Memorandum of Understanding - non-binding preliminary agreement), the answer will be given within the next 24 hours.

The same applies to the rumored US financing for the second FSRU (floating LNG storage and regasification unit) in Thrace, with a budget of €600-650 million, promoted by Gastrade, an issue on which discussions have intensified, but without any certainty that they have been concluded.

In any case, the "key" to all this happening, i.e. for there to be a strong response from new customers and for investors and banks to put money on the table, is to have tangible evidence that the many obstacles of the Vertical Corridor have been addressed.

That being said, the next 48 hours will show whether US pressure on Brussels to change its stance on both its refusal to finance new natural gas infrastructure (such as FSRUs) and its (at least until now) categorical position that the products of the Vertical Corridor are not in line with the EU framework for the gas market, as demonstrated by Klaus Borchard's recent contacts in Athens.

The same applies to countries such as Romania, which is said to be refusing to further reduce transit costs along the route (tariffs) in order to protect its own production, especially when it aspires to become a net gas exporter to Europe in the coming years, once the Neptun Deep field in the Black Sea becomes commercially operational.

Stassis' contacts with hyperscalers

As for the question raised by the presence of the CEO of PPC at today's conference on transatlantic gas cooperation, as reported by Euro2day.gr sources with good knowledge of the issue, his participation is aimed at making contacts, in the same vein as his presence last September in Milan (Gastech 2025), and not at signing agreements.

The same sources explain that Stassis' presence in Washington is mainly linked to his scheduled meetings with American hyperscalers, which concern the €2.3 billion mega data center in Kozani.

According to some information, the contacts seem to be progressing at a rather accelerated pace, judging by the fact that the talks are being conducted not only at the business level but also at the political level, as evidenced by the recent discussion on the subject between the prime minister and Michael Kratsios, head of President Trump's technology team.

The "arc" of participating countries

At the same table with the ministers of the five countries along the route (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine), there will also be high-level participation from countries such as Hungary, Slovakia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Lithuania, and Poland.

After all, the Americans' goal is not only to target the countries of the Vertical Corridor, but to cover an "arc" of markets stretching from the Western Balkans to Hungary, replacing huge quantities of Russian gas, estimated at 17-18 billion cubic meters (bcm), currently transported throughout Southeast Europe with LNG.

Further interest is added by the presence at the same meeting of competing countries in the Vertical Corridor, such as Poland.

Indicative of this is the recent Polish "wedge," with Warsaw's rapid issuance of permits for the construction of two new 280 km natural gas pipelines, with the aim, among other things, of increasing transit volumes from the country's national system to Lithuania, Slovakia, and Ukraine—in other words, the end of the Vertical Corridor.

One of the most difficult questions that the Washington summit will have to answer is how to convince these countries to set aside their national projects in favor of a broader common plan, such as the Vertical Corridor.

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