Optima Bank has set a new, higher target price for Helleniq Energy shares at €9.8 from €8.3, while maintaining a neutral recommendation, as the upside margin stands at 8.3% from current levels.
The brokerage firm refers to a strong fourth quarter (announcements on February 26, after the close of trading), with adjusted EBITDA at €361 million, boosted by the strong refining environment and strong production.
Adjusted net profit is expected to be €181 million, up from €117 million in the same period in 2024.
Taking into account the negative impact of the fall in oil prices, EBITDA and net profit are expected to be €274 million and €130 million, respectively, compared to €189 million and €48 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
As for the dividend, it is estimated that the listed company will announce a distribution of €0.4, increasing the total dividend for 2025 to €0.6 per share, as it has already distributed an interim dividend of €0.2.
The outlook
Helleniq Energy enters 2026 with a positive outlook, as a series of operational and strategic catalysts are expected to further boost profitability and support its stock market image. According to market estimates, four key factors shape the investment narrative for the new fiscal year.
First, the environment for refining looks favorable. The international oil products market is characterized by limited supply, which keeps refining margins at satisfactory levels. In this context, the Group's refineries are expected to remain strong, taking advantage of both Greece's geographical location and the export orientation of production. The positive environment creates expectations for resilient cash flows and sustained high operating performance.
Secondly, the scheduled maintenance at the Aspropyrgos refinery, which took place earlier in the year, is expected to have a positive impact going forward. The completion of maintenance work reduces the risk of unforeseen downtime and enhances the unit's availability for the rest of the period, allowing the company to capitalize on favorable market conditions.
A third catalyst is the full consolidation of ENERWAVE from the beginning of the fiscal year. The integration of the RES company into Helleniq Energy's balance sheet is expected to strengthen recurring revenues and provide greater stability to operating results, gradually reducing dependence on the cyclicality of refining.
Finally, new additions to Renewable Energy Sources (RES) capacity are expected to support the Group's profitability. The increase in the portfolio of projects in operation or in the completion phase strengthens the company's "green" footprint and improves the EBITDA mix, with a greater share of lower-risk and stable-return activities.
Overall, 2026 is projected to be a year of balanced growth for Helleniq Energy, with refining continuing to generate strong cash flows and the RES sector gradually gaining ground in terms of profit contribution, enhancing the Group's diversification and long-term resilience.