Summary
The Greek banking sector is entering 2026 from a position of strength, ending 2025 with strong credit expansion, improved revenue quality, and strengthened capital positions. Beta Securities highlights the transition from recovery to expansion, with banks showing strategic extroversion through selective acquisitions in insurance, Cyprus, and asset management. Preferred choices remain Alpha Bank, Eurobank, and Piraeus ahead of Q4 2025 results. |
The sector's performance in 2025 marks a decisive transition from the recovery phase to the expansion phase, according to an analysis by Beta Securities ahead of the announcement of fourth-quarter results by systemic banks on Thursday and Friday.
What sets this year apart is not only the strength of the published figures, but also the quality and repeatability of the underlying profit drivers. Greek banks are no longer defined by the clearing of old outstanding issues or the restoration of capital; they now operate as organisations with scale, competitiveness, regional significance, diversified sources of revenue and a credible strategic agenda.
Banks have been extremely active in M&A (mergers and acquisitions), signaling their intention to grow and, above all, demonstrating strategic selectivity, targeting assets that enhance fee income, expand regional presence, or deepen product capabilities.
Insurance, Cyprus, and asset management emerged as priorities. This shift suggests that the industry is no longer on the defensive but is adopting an outward-looking strategy, leveraging its capital strength to accelerate growth and diversify earnings.
What is changing now
| Key changes |
|---|
| ► Credit expansion accelerates: the four systemic banks exceeded their annual targets for net loan growth in 2025. |
| ► Retail credit is recovering: Piraeus Bank turned retail credit positive for the first time in 15 years, with mortgage loans leading the way. |
| ► Revenue diversification: commissions are becoming increasingly important to the revenue base — Piraeus aims for ~28% from insurance, investment banking, and wealth management. |
| ► Capital positions are strengthened through organic profitability and MREL issuances, opening up space for distributions or acquisitions. |
| ► Strategic acquisitions are integrated: Hellenic Bank, CNP, Eurolife, Ethniki Insurance, Astrobank, and Axia are beginning to contribute to results with a positive impact of +5–15% on EPS per bank involved. |
The Greek banking sector ended last year with broad-based strength and a clear acceleration in underlying momentum. Credit expansion was one of the defining features of the year, with the four banks achieving strong loan growth, driven primarily by corporate lending.
The composition of revenues has become structurally healthier. The normalisation of interest rates did not derail top-line performance; on the contrary, it highlighted the resilience of core banking revenues and the growing contribution of non-interest sources.
Costs remain under control even with seasonal pressure in Q4, asset quality is strong, and capital positions are further strengthened through organic profitability and ongoing MREL issuances.
With full-year guidance broadly achieved or confirmed, the sector enters 2026 from a position of stability, with diversified revenue engines and increasing strategic flexibility. Our preferred picks remain Alpha Bank, Eurobank, and Piraeus.
Eurobank
Eurobank is estimated to have ended Q4 2025 on a positive note, with the €4 billion credit expansion target considered comfortably achievable.
Net interest income (NII) is estimated at €644.5 million for the quarter, in line with the annual guidance of €2.5 billion and slightly higher than Q2 and Q3 levels.
Fee income is forecast at €198.5 million, also in line with the annual target of €750 million, supported by a strong quarter.
Total revenues are estimated at €862.1 million (+2.1% q-o-q), while operating expenses are expected to increase to €332.1 million (+5% q-o-q), making Q4 the quarter with the highest expenses due to seasonality and in line with the revised annual guidance of €1.26 billion.
Loan impairments are forecast at €78 million, implying a Cost of Risk (CoR) of around 60 basis points (bp), in line with guidance. Net profit is estimated at €356.4 million (+4.1% q-o-q). ROTE (return on tangible equity) is close to 16%, while deposits also recorded a strong quarter, strengthening the balance sheet.
Loan growth remains a key driver, with Greece, Cyprus, and Bulgaria outperforming the Eurozone average. NII is expected to remain resilient, as deposit beta (the percentage of interest rate changes passed on to deposits) remains low and the negative effects of interest rate cuts have already been absorbed. Fees are accelerating, aided by the consolidation of Hellenic Bank & CNP and Eurolife. Cost management is effective and asset quality is improving further. The acquisition of Eurolife is estimated to contribute +5% to EPS (earnings per share) and +100 bps to ROTE.
Piraeus
The bank's management described a strong year-end performance ahead of the CMD (Capital Markets Day) on March 5 in London. Although loan growth trends slowed compared to previous quarters due to year-end repayments, the bank achieved its annual net credit expansion target of >€3.5 billion, marking a historic turning point as net retail credit became positive for the first time in 15 years, led by mortgages.
Most of the credit expansion was financed by customer deposits, which ended the year higher than expected, alongside positive trends in AUM (assets under management) and mutual funds and stable asset quality. In terms of results, NII remained virtually unchanged in the quarter, signalling that the lowest point has passed, while commission income rose strongly (>10% QoQ), supported by insurance, investment banking, the major Egnatia Odos project, and the first monthly consolidation of Ethniki Insurance.
Operating expenses are estimated at around €900 million for the year, burdened by extraordinary items, including €10–15 million for VES (voluntary employee severance), National Insurance consolidation costs and Snappi commercial start-up costs (€20–25 million per annum).
Impairments reflect post-model adjustments due to legislation on CHF loans and the conversion of step-up products to fixed-term loans. Management confirmed its key targets: 15% RoTBV (return on tangible book value), €0.80 reported EPS, and ~13% CET1 (common equity tier 1 ratio) after consolidation.
Strong commission momentum is noted, especially as Ethniki Insurance begins to contribute; commissions will approach 28% of the revenue base. The acquisition is expected to add +100 bps to ROTE and +10–15% to EPS (EPS €0.90 for 2026; €1 for 2027 and €1.2 for 2028).
Snappi, although in its early stages, is performing well strategically and has achieved its first target of 50,000 users by the end of the year.
National Bank
The FY25 (full year 2025) pre-closing conference call confirmed stable operating performance, with management reporting performance in line with targets and positive leading indicators for 2026. NII remained unchanged q-o-q (-10% y-o-y), in line with our guidance and estimates (€527 million Q4; €2.13 billion FY), citing supportive trends from deposit repricing and visibility of NII recovery in 2026.
Credit expansion was strong in Q4, exceeding the €2.5 billion target, with positive retail credit and early signs of improvement in mortgages. Fee income remained strong, with single-digit average annual growth (€121 million in Q4; €457 million in FY). Operating expenses increased due to seasonality (€257 million in Q4; €942 million in FY), with cost-to-income ratio at 35% annually.
CoR remained stable, with a target of 15%. The bank will present its 2026–2028 Business Plan. Loan growth is strong and NII stable; commissions are increasing but less aggressively than competitors. Significant excess capital allows for increased distributions or strategic acquisitions.
Alpha Bank
Q4 performance reflects strong operational execution and continued strategy implementation in Greece and Cyprus, with a clear contribution from recent acquisitions and a clear path to achieving FY25 targets. VES will be accounted for in Q1 2026. Q4 includes Astrobank and Axia (the latter only capital and goodwill). The completion of insurance acquisitions in Cyprus is expected by the end of 2026 with +23 bps CET1.
Credit expansion remained strong, with positive retail credit, an 11.3% y-o-y increase in corporate credit, and a positive Q4 in mortgages. Deposits were positive, asset quality stable, and the MREL target was achieved.
In Q4, a €86 million buyback (repurchase of own shares) and an interim dividend of €111 million were implemented, offset by Axia goodwill. The €500 million 3.125% green senior preferred bond remains in the financing structure.
NII for the fourth quarter is estimated at over €403 million (2 months Astrobank), NFC >€460 million, commissions >€111 million. FY25 costs €870 million, Q4 €238 million. Forecasts 45 bps (€40–45 million/quarter), gains from participations €30 million, net profits FY25 €900 million. Strong growth in loans and commissions (insurance, payments, wealth, corporate). Controlled costs, strong asset quality. AstroBank and Axia contribute +6% to EPS and +75 bps to ROTE.
Watch Now
| What to watch |
|---|
| ► Watch the Q4 2025 results of Piraeus and Alpha Bank (Thursday) and Eurobank and National Bank (Friday) — especially the NII, CoR, and commission trends for each bank against guidance. |
| ► Focus on Piraeus Bank's CMD (March 5, London) and National Bank's 2026–2028 Business Plan — both of which are expected to provide visibility on capital targets, shareholder distributions, and growth strategy for the next three years. |