HSBC maintains its"buy" recommendation forJumbo, but has lowered its target price to €32.50 from €37.50 previously, following a review of estimates and an increase in the cost of capital. With the share price at €25.80, the upside potential is close to 26%.
In terms of valuation, the stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 10.1 times for 2026 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.1 times, while free cash flow generation remains strong. HSBC believes that Jumbo continues to offer an attractive risk-return profile, despite short-term macroeconomic challenges.
The firm notes that the slowdown in Romania is a short-term challenge. Sales in the country grew by around 4% in 2025, compared to 9% in 2024, while in January 2026 there was a 4% decline on an annual basis. The pressure is attributed to fiscal measures, an increase in VAT, and weaker purchasing power. Nevertheless, Romania remains a strategic market, accounting for 21% of sales in 2025, with HSBC expecting stabilization in 2026 and a return to growth rates from 2027.
The strong growth of the franchise network is counterbalancing the pressures. Its share of sales has increased significantly in recent years and is estimated to reach 10% by 2027, supporting medium-term revenue growth. Although franchise sales have a lower gross margin, they do not burden operating expenses, limiting the impact on operating profitability.
For 2026, HSBC forecasts revenue growth of 5.5%, EBITDA of €437 million, and net profit of €333 million, with a marginal increase of 3% year-on-year. The EBITDA margin is estimated at 33.6%, reflecting a gradual normalization from the high levels of previous years.