The first session of the new trading week was marked by fluctuations, with nervousness clearly evident and any selective interest from buyers focused on the non-banking FTSE25 index.
All of the above was accompanied by the highest turnover of the last 10 sessions, with all that this may imply for the future.
In contrast, the picture was weak again today on the heavyweight banking board, whose sector index moved steadily into negative territory, completing three consecutive sessions of decline, with cumulative losses of 6.86%.
It should be noted that since the close of February 4, when the banking index ended trading at 2859.37 points (a new 123-month high, with the next highest close on November 17, 2015, at 2,860 points), the index has been moving steadily sideways, having completed 9 downward sessions out of a total of 13 sessions, with cumulative losses reaching 12.17%.
According to cross-checked information from brokerage firms, a significant number of foreign funds operating in emerging markets have intensified their profit-taking moves, handing over their positions to stronger "investing hands " from developed markets. However, the latter do not seem to be in a hurry to aggressively increase their positions, as they wait for more attractive entry points, resulting in outflows exceeding inflows, with all that this may imply for the short-term trend.
On the other hand, volatility on the Athens Stock Exchange is not isolated from the international environment.
All indications are that the current volatility will continue to be fueled by the decisions and announcements of the unpredictable Donald Trump.
The latter, following the Supreme Court's rejection, announced a global additional tariff of 10%, citing the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the President to impose restrictions on imports for up to 150 days without congressional approval, to proceed with his latest post, according to which "in countries, many of which have been stealing from the US for decades without retaliation, until I came along, I am raising tariffs to the fully permitted and legally controlled level of 15%."
It should be noted that, according to analysts, "the Supreme Court's decision jeopardizes $175 billion in revenue for the US federal government, and after 150 days, Trump must obtain permission from a divided Congress to extend the tariffs. The question, ultimately, is not whether the tariff strategy will change, but what long-term consequences it will have not only on the US economy, but also on the global economy."
In any case, the new 10% US additional customs duties announced by Donald Trump came into effect today(the new additional tariffs do not replace the so-called sectoral tariffs, which range from 10% to 50% on specific goods and sectors of activity - copper, cars, construction timber, etc. as they are not affected by the Supreme Court's decision to overturn a large part of the additional tariffs imposed by Trump).
"According to a government official, the White House is working on an official order that will raise the global tariff rate to 15%. The timeline for implementing the higher tax has not been finalized, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private matters," Bloomberg reported.
According to the agency, "the European Parliament has frozen the ratification process for the trade agreement between the European Union and the USand is seeking more details from Donald Trump's administration on its new tariff program."
Meanwhile, in a new post, Trump threatened "to impose much higher tariffs on countries that want to 'play' with the consequences of the US Supreme Court's decision."
"At present, developments in US tariff policy are a significant factor. And now, there is not only hesitation about the tariffs themselves, in a macroeconomic context, but also political ramifications, due to the recent annulment decision by the US Supreme Court, which adds to the uncertainty.
The 'merry-go-round' continues with new legal inventions and threats. No one knows which legal basis applies, which agreement remains in force, and which country will decide to renegotiate. The EU has suspended ratification of its trade agreement, India has frozen talks, Japan is seeking guarantees from Washington, and FedEx has thrown a spanner in the works by immediately filing a lawsuit for damages.
Another point worth noting is the developments in the Iran-US talks, which have obvious implications for the global economy, especially if tensions escalate. Here too, the US President is firing shots in all directions, essentially demanding that his partners take him seriously.
The fourth quarter earnings season in the US is coming to an end, with over 80% of S&P 500 companies having already announced their results. Earnings are supporting the market, with 74% of the 429 companies that have published results exceeding estimates. S&P 500 earnings growth in the fourth quarter is estimated at 8.4%, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of annual growth.
On the Greek stock market, graphically speaking, we have lost 2310 points in short-term value, and as long as we do not secure the 2320-2330 range, we continue to 'look' at the 2220 of the GD, which defines the medium-term trend,"emphasizes Symeon Mavroudis (portfolio manager at Fast Finance SA).
Beyond that, the week, which started with a relative delay due to yesterday's holiday, is expected to be "colored" by the increased intensity of corporate earnings announcements, including those of systemic banks.
According to an experienced analyst, "given that we have entered a week of results and bank business plan presentations, the climate is expected to become 'heated' again. The market is in a phase of selection and restructuring. The course of 2026-2027 will be determined less by whether the Fed continues to cut interest rates and more by whether corporate profitability continues to grow."
Meanwhile, the FTSE Russell's semi-annual review included reshuffles for Greek stocks . Specifically, CREDIA and BIO shares are entering the Emerging Europe Large Cap index, with the latter being upgraded from the Mid Cap index.
Conversely, BIO is leaving the Mid Cap index due to its move to the higher category.
CREDIA shares are also included in the FTSE All-World and FTSE All-Cap indices.
Two companies are addedto the FTSE All-Cap: ABAX and QLCO.
The shares of ABAX and QLCO are enteringthe Emerging Europe Small Cap index.
ILYDA, MEVA, PAP, and REALCONS are added to the Emerging Europe Micro Cap index, while EYAPS is removed.
The shares of ABAX, CREDIA, ILYDA, MEVA, PAP, QLCO, and REALCONS are addedto the FTSE Total-Cap index, while the share of EYAPS is removed.
The rebalancing is scheduled for Friday, March 20.
On 27/2, the scheduled rebalancing of the MSCI.
As for the scheduled assessments of Greek creditworthiness, DBRS will kick things off on March 6, followed by Moody's on March 13, Scope Ratings on March 20, S&P on April 24, and Fitch on May 8.
There is no sign of any significant differentiation in the picture for mid- and small-cap stocks, where the number of shares claiming higher valuations is particularly small, with relatively convincing transactions.
The technical data formed by the last few sessions remain unchanged, with the next support level at 2232 points, which completes the chart discontinuity (January 22, 2250 – 2232) from the recent rise in the market.
At the same time, during last Friday's session, the General Index created a new downward price "gap" in the 2334 – 2348 point range, a level that now constitutes the market's basic short-term resistance.
As for the expected 2025 corporate results, which this column updates on a daily basis, according to the announcements of listed companies:
- 26/2/26, EUROB (after market close), PIR (before market open), OTE (before market open), ELPE (after market close), INTEK (before market open)
- 27/2/26, ALPHA (08.00), ETE, PREMIA (before market opening), TRASTOR (after market closing)
- 2/3/26, OPAP (after the market closed)
- 3/3/26, OPTIMA (before market opening)
- 4/3/26, CENER, LAMDA (after market close)
- 5/3/26, CREDIA (after market close), BIO
- 11/3/26, SAR (after market close)
- 17/3/26, TRESTATES (before market opening)
- 18/3/26, OTOEL (before market opening)
- 19/3/26, DEI (after market close), TITC, MOTO (after market close)
- 23/3/26, ACAG (after market close)
- 24/3/26, DAA (after market close)
- 27/3, GEBKA (after market close)
- 30/3/26, MPBR (after market close)
- 31/3/26, MTLN, ORILINA, PPA (after market close)
- 7/4/26, ASKO
- 21/4 QLCO (after market close)
- 28/4 BIOKA
- 30/4, XYLK (before market opening), IATR (after market close).
The main European markets are in a positive mood and posting small gains , as active investors are unable to price in the latest developments.
According to Beta Sec., "tomorrow morning, the revised figures for Germany's GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be published, while at 12:00 p.m., the CPI for January in the Eurozone will be announced. NVIDIA (Dow Jones), HSBC, Bayer, and E.ON will publish their financial results. On Thursday, Salesforce, Deutsche Telekom, Dell, AXA, and Munich Re will announce their fourth quarter 2025 financial results.
Early Friday morning, Japan's CPI for February will be released, unemployment and CPI for the same month in Germany, while in the afternoon it is the turn of the US to publish its producer price index for January and the Chicago PMI manufacturing index for February. BASF will publish its financial results.
Yields on the bond market are stabilising. More specifically, the yield on the US 2-year bond is stabilising at 3.45%, the 10-year bond at 4.04% and the Greek 10-year bond at 3.326%.
The General Index moved between 2281.25 (+0.33%) and 2259.39 points (-0.63%). At 17:00, it stood at 2263.02 (-0.47%) and closed at a new low of 2259.13 points, with daily losses of 0.64%.
Turnover was €403.5 million, of which €37.5 million related to pre-agreed transactions (BOCHGR, OPTIMA, ALPHA, BELA, EYDAP, KRI, BIO, GEKTERNA, PIR, EUROB, OTE, OTOEL, ETE, DEI), with ETE, ALPHA, PIR, and EUROB accounting for 66% of the total gross trading value.
Of the total turnover of €403.5 million, €388.3 million relates to transactions in FTSE 25 shares.
The picture in high capitalisation
Among the heavyweight bank stocks, PIR (-3.53%) remained in negative territory, while ALPHA (-3.61%), ETE (-4.16%), EUROB (-2.94%), BOCHGR (-1.69%) and OPTIMA (-0.72%) changed signs.
The banking sector index remained negative , reaching a low of 2512.25 points (-3.28%). At 17:00, it stood at 2520.61 (-2.96%) and closed at a new low of 2511.28 points, with daily losses of 3.32%.
The DTR has a daily sell signal, which is negated by a return and close above 2696 points. The next resistance levels are at 2848 and 2900 points. The next supports are at 2372, 2300, 2283, 2244 - 2242 points (the 200-day exponential moving average and the 200-day simple moving average converge).
A clear advantage for "green" stocks is provided by the final picture in the non-banking 25, where ARIG (-0.72%), EYDAP (-0.75%), OPAP (-4.36%), and MTLN (-1.41%).
Among the stocks that claimed higher valuations, the biggest gains were for BIO (+6.3%), GEKTERNA (+3.05%), ELHA (+2.19%), MOI (+4%), BELA (+2.39%), OTE (+4.27%), and CENER (+3.69%).
BIO (+6.3%) and EEE (+1.84%) closed at new all-time highs.
OPAP (-4.36%) ended today's trading at a new 13-month low. If it continues its downward trend, the next support level is at €15.56-15.34. The first significant resistance is at €18.10 (200-day exponential moving average). Portfolio transfers to other dividend-bearing stocks continue.
After two consecutive corrective sessions, OTE shares moved permanently into positive territory today (+4.27%). The stock needs consecutive closes above €17.59 to "change course." The first support is in the 16.44-16.32 zone (the two 200-day moving averages are converging). The daily "stop long" is at €15.38.
S&P Global Ratings announced that the lower-than-expected performance of Metlen Energy & Metals'energy business for the full year 2025 will not have an immediate impact on the issuer's "BB+" credit ratingor stable outlook at this stage.
Analysts' estimates
"It's no small amount of 'paper' that was thrown at the banking sector today. It seems to be aiming for 2440. It will be difficult for the GD to hold at 2260 in such a scenario. The DTR 'In the water' will test the 2450 level,"emphasizes Fast Finance SA.
"As the market approaches key decision-making and implementation milestones related to a possible reclassification of Greece from an emerging to a developed market by MSCI and FTSE Russell, volatility is expected to remain high as investors seek to assess the impact of the associated passive and active capital flows.
At the same time, the Q4 2025 earnings season is entering a critical phase, with domestic banks announcing results and presenting updated business plans this week.
Their guidance, particularly on profitability trends (interest and fee income, future repayment policy) and loan growth, is likely to be a key driver of the short-term trend on the Athens Stock Exchange. Therefore, we expect the market to remain volatile and investors to remain selective ahead of the earnings announcements, " Beta Sec said in its estimates.
"With the Athens Stock Exchange closed yesterday, the market adjusted, in part, to the losses of the previous session in Europe. At the same time, increased tensions between the US and Iran and the visible military deployment in the Middle East continue to limit risk appetite and keep investors on the defensive,"according to Eurobank Equities.
"We expect sentiment to remain mixed amid global uncertainty, with domestic attention focused on banks that will publish their annual results later this week (in addition to the results, attention will also focus on the dividend distribution policy and updated forecasts - business plans).
HelleniQ Energy and Ideal Holdings will also publish their results on Thursday," Piraeus Sec reminds us.
"In the US yesterday, we saw renewed significant pressure on the main stock indices due to the nervousness caused by Trump's new tariffs.
In the Nasdaq technology index, increased pressure was recorded in the local banking sector, which is included in the index. We do not rule out a further decline in the GDX to around 2240 points, but the short-term trend will be dictated by external factors,"emphasises Depolas Investment Services.
"The General Index has completed two weeks of correction, with the market nevertheless showing that it has potential buyers who are absorbing the supply, according to Ilias Zacharakis.
It seems that the movement so far is purely corrective and we have not yet seen the 'end of the project' at this stage. In the worst-case scenario, we may see another upward attempt towards the highs. After all, the picture changes completely if we look at individual stocks, and that is the beauty of a bull market.
In the coming period, volatility is expected to continue and interest to increase.
The coming week will see the release of several earnings announcements, including those of EUROB, PIR, OTE, ELPE, ETE, ALPHA, and INTEK.
Geopolitics remains a factor that could affect the markets, but this cannot be discounted.
The medium-term trend and liquidity are more important for our market.
On the other hand, the agreement with Chevron is a clear differentiating factor for our country, both immediately and in the near future.
We would like to remind you that two significant share capital increases have been decided: one for ADMIE and another for CREDIA, which appears to be pursuing aggressive growth in the sector.
Technically, we note that the stop shorts on GD, FTSE25, and DTR have fallen to 2327, 5934, and 2696 points, respectively. This fact alone is an important factor for our strategy in the coming period.
Wednesday's low remains crucial as long as it is maintained, while in the event of consolidation, the emergence of another downward trend cannot be ruled out,"notes Mr. Zacharakis (President and CEO of Fast Finance SA).
"In the US, the Supreme Court ruled by a large majority that Trump's tariffs are illegal, as the relevant authority lies with Congress, with the President bypassing it. President Trump has already announced new tariffs of 10% according to the latest announcement, with the clock now ticking down to the November elections, which will determine whether he will continue to control the top legislative bodies in the US. It is therefore clear that the performance of the US economy in 2026 will be critical to voters' decisions,"as Dimitris Tzanas points out .
At the same time, the European Parliament is suspending the implementation of the EU-US trade agreement reached in July 2025, pending necessary clarifications from the US on the final level of tariffs. At the same time, a new round of US-Iran talks is being prepared in Geneva, with both sides preparing for the possibility of armed conflict, which cannot be ruled out!
As a result, uncertainty surrounding both tariffs and geopolitical risk is peaking, with markets moving nervously and managers opting for a strategy of increased liquidity in their portfolios.
At the same time, the threat of closure of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing the price of Brent crude oil above $72/barrel, while there is a renewed appetite for gold investments among those who consider it a safe haven in turbulent times, with its price once again exceeding $5,100/ounce.
The Greek Stock Exchange is inevitably affected by this international situation, given the high participation of foreigners in trading and its structural shallowness, resulting in increased volatility!
Thus, Goldman Sachs' report on the manageable impact of the Supreme Court's decision on N. Katselis' loans from banks sparked an explosion of buying interest in bank shares at the February 18 session.
This was followed by a wave of liquidations in anticipation of the Clean Monday holiday and fears of tension in the Persian Gulf during the holidays!
However, a more sober assessment of the Greek market data cannot fail to take into account the expected exceptional performance of systemic banks at the end of the week, with Bank of Cyprus announcing it first, along with a generous cash distribution of 70% of profits.
And the positive impact of the Greek Prime Minister's trip to India, with the signing of agreements that will help tourism, infrastructure, and investment in the Greek economy, paving the way for new loans from Greek banks, especially Eurobank, which will soon open a representative office in New Delhi.
Given the above, the GD's move as a "quasi-train of terror" is not consistent with the fundamentals of the companies and the positive corporate announcements, nor with the likely positive developments for GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025, which will be announced on March 6 by ELSTAT.
Technical analysis estimates that the GD will soon return to 2290 points, with the aim of immediately exceeding 2300 points, to the extent that the disruptive factors of the international environment are brought under control," as emphasized by Mr. Tzanas (Management Consultant, Kyklos AXE).