OPAP’s transformation into Allwyn completely changes the investment equation, but Citi appears relatively cautious about how quickly the market will reward this new narrative.
The U.S. firm maintains its neutral rating and adjusts the target price to €13.10, believing that the valuation already reflects a large portion of the positive outlook.
The key change, according to the report, is that the stock is no longer valued as the old defensive OPAP, with high dividend yields and a predictable trajectory, but as a global gaming group with much higher growth potential, as well as increased complexity.
Citi has cut its earnings per share forecasts for 2026–2027 by 33%, while noting that the new Allwyn is trading at approximately 9 times enterprise value to operating profit, a level it considers reasonable given the risk and growth profile.
The new structure also changes the investment narrative, as the group gains multi-geographic exposure in Europe, the United Kingdom, the U.S., and Latin America, with a diversified portfolio of activities and a significant share of exclusive licensed games—a factor that offers resilience but also creates new execution requirements.
Citi forecasts a 13% annual increase in operating profitability for the 2025–2028 period, driven primarily by PrizePicks in the U.S., the stake in Betano, and the recovery of the UK lottery division.
The trade-off for this growth is significantly higher leverage. The net debt-to-operating profit ratio is projected to exceed 3 times over the next two years, whereas it was nearly zero prior to the deal. This, according to the firm, limits flexibility and explains why the dividend policy is becoming more conservative, with a dividend of €1 per share and a yield of around 7%.
Of particular interest is Citi’s scenario analysis, which highlights how critical the issue of execution remains. In the optimistic scenario, with stronger growth and a valuation upgrade, the theoretical value reaches €18.60, about 40% higher than current levels.
In the base case, on which the €13.10 target price is based, Citi projects an average annual revenue growth rate of 17% and a valuation of 8 times operating earnings. In the negative scenario, with lower growth, tougher competition, and lower multiples, the value drops to €8 per share.
For Citi, the big question is not the strategic rationale behind the merger, but the ability of the new Allwyn to demonstrate that it can implement the new model without compromising returns or balance sheet discipline. This is why the firm is not adopting a more positive stance, despite the group’s significant change in scale.