With palpable nervousness—for different reasons—the progressive opposition parties are reacting to the new polls, as they see their goals not reflected in the key findings.On the contrary, now that polling firms have begun measuring the appeal and potential vote share of two parties that have not yet been founded—those of Alexis Tsipras and Maria Karistianou— the existing parties are facing stronger pressure than in the recent past.
Char. Trikoupi is “carefully studying,” as officials say, the two latest polls, by Metron Analysis and yesterday’s Opinion Poll, which show Mr. Tsipras in second place in terms of suitability for prime minister, with Nikos Androulakis in third (in the first poll) and tied with Zoi Konstantopoulou for fifth place (in yesterday’s poll).
But in terms of potential vote share(very likely/likely), “Tsipras’s party” stands at 19%, an increase of four percentage points from the previous poll (by Opinion Poll).
This picture, combined with the slight increase in voting intention and estimated vote share for PASOK (11.7% and 14.4%, respectively), is setting off alarm bells among party officials. For now, however, they are taking comfort in the fact that “Tsipras’s party” has not yet been officially established and, therefore, has not been presented to the public.
(The assessment is similar for the “Karystianou party,” though it should be noted that this party already appears to be “drawing” from the Freedom Course and the pool of undecided voters without threatening the parties of the progressive camp).
Consequently, PASOK’s daily strategy stems from the prevailing assessment at 1 Trikoupi Street, as officially stated yesterday by Mr. Androulakis: “The defection from New Democracy will not go to Mr. Tsipras. If it goes anywhere, it will go to PASOK, ”he said (on ‘Alpha’).
Furthermore, as we have already noted, the party president has reintroduced references to the “Tsipras-Kammenos system” and the “Syriza-ANEL government” into his vocabulary, attempting to appeal to the sentiments of former PASOK voters who followed Mr. Tsipras (2012–2019), but who, despite having distanced themselves from SYRIZA, are not returning to their “roots.”
Furthermore, while the leadership at Char. Trikoupi Street seeks to convince the public that the only alternative to the government is PASOK, it stubbornly adheres to its decision of political autonomy and non-cooperation with other neighboring parties, even regarding joint action in Parliament.
For this reason, it took its potential negotiating partners (SYRIZA and New Left) by surprise by submitting on its own both the request for a preliminary investigation (OPEKEPE) on Thursday and the request for a parliamentary inquiry (wiretapping) yesterday.
The message is clear: PASOK is the leading force—anyone who wants to can cooperate with us as long as they accept our program and positions.
According to experienced analysts, this very “aggressive line” of autonomy is now facing its final test, because, as they say, if the current poll numbers solidify after the official founding of the “Tsipras party,” then “starting next month, we’ll be talking about a different political dynamic in the country.”
SYRIZA on the Brink
PASOK’s stance now forces Koumoundourou to abandon its equally stubborn calls for progressive cooperation and seek ways to survive the election.
But this is where things get even tougher for SYRIZA, since Mr. Tsipras has made it clear in every way possible that he refuses to cooperate “with parties” but only with individuals. In other words, he does not seem willing to grant the wish of many within SYRIZA to createa “coalition of constituent parties.”
Given that the once-ruling party is on the verge of failing to enter Parliament, one question is whether supporters of the “Tsipras party” will call for the dissolution of SYRIZA.
The other question is whether… they will succeed, as those who have “broken ranks” with their former president (led by Pavlos Polakis) will fight tooth and nail to keep the party active and in Parliament, in the name of a pure left-wing identity and action.
Together, they are pressuring Socrates Famellos to request a meeting with Mr. Tsipras to discuss how they will proceed… together or alone at the polls. A proposal reiterated yesterday by Nikos Pappas, one of the staunchest advocates of cooperation rather than individual membership in the new party.