Dear friends, good day to you all!
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis repeats with admirable consistency that the government will serve out its constitutional term. He reiterated this yesterday before President K. Tasoulas, attempting to put an end to speculation about early elections and maintain an image of political stability.
This is, understandably, a fully conscious choice. In a period of international uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and economic upheavals, stability remains perhaps the government’s strongest political asset.
On its own, however, it is not enough to secure his re-election, as the polls indicate.
To be precise, the polls continue to show New Democracy’s dominance on the political scene and the opposition’s inability to formulate a convincing alternative for power.
At the same time, however, they also reveal something else: a gradual social fatigue toward the government. Not necessarily rejection, but weariness. A sense that the government no longer exudes the same reformist momentum and sense of direction it did in 2019 or even after its second election victory in 2023.
The daily lives of citizens remain under pressure. Inflation is eroding incomes, the housing crisis weighs most heavily on younger people, the resilience of the middle class is being tested, and the sense of the state’s effectiveness often gives way to bureaucracy, delays, and the chronic ills of public administration.
At the same time, there is a growing sense that part of the government apparatus now operates more in terms of political management and communication than in terms of substantive reform acceleration. That the government often appears to be on the defensive against erosion rather than attempting to catch opponents off guard politically with major new initiatives.
And this is precisely where Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s real dilemma lies.
If there is indeed about a year left until the national elections, then that time is not enough for political inaction. It is the time during which either public perceptions will be reversed or the image of a government that has begun to exhaust its political cycle will be cemented.
The Greece of 2026 is not the Greece of 2019. The country has regained its investment grade, unemployment has fallen significantly, investment and exports are at higher levels, and the economy’s international standing has clearly improved. However, this progress is not automatically sufficient to create a new social contract of trust. This is because a large segment of society believes that changes are not proceeding at the pace required by the circumstances.
The major issues remain unresolved: changing the production model, increasing productivity, strengthening competitiveness, and linking growth to better wages and more opportunities for the younger generation. And all of this requires controversial policies, costly reforms, and decisions that will inevitably provoke reactions.
The real question, then, is not whether the prime minister will lead the country to early or regular elections. The real question is whether, by then, he will choose management or a fresh start. Safe political maintenance or a new wave of reformist pressure on the state, the economy, and the government itself.
Because first terms in office are usually won with promises of change. Second terms are often won due to the weakness or absence of a convincing alternative. Third terms, however, require something deeper: a new narrative of a historic mission. They require a prime minister to convince the public not only that he has been effective, but that he still has a political raison d’être and a plan for the country’s next phase.
And this is precisely Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s biggest challenge leading up to the elections. Because in the upcoming elections, the prime minister will not be judged solely on what he has done. He will be judged primarily on whether he can still convince the public that he has a reason to continue governing.