Autonomous Research paints a positive picture for Greek banks and the Greek economy as a whole , following its meetings in Athens with bank executives, government officials, the Bank of Greece, and the Hellenic Debt Management Agency (HDMA). Analysts point to an economy that continues to outperform despite geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures.
The firm maintains a clearly positive stance on the Greek banking sector, with Eurobank and National Bank of Greece as top picks, while it believes that strong demand for Recovery Fund loans, the resilience of tourism, and the prospect of higher interest rates continue to support earnings.
Autonomous sets a target price of €5.40 for Eurobank with an “outperform” rating and 49% upside potential, €18.30 for National Bank of Greece , also with an “outperform” rating and 36% upside, €9.50 for Piraeus Bank with a neutral recommendation and a 17% upside, while for Alpha Bank it maintains an underperform recommendation with a target price of €3.60 and a limited 2% upside.
Eurobank: The strongest growth track record in the sector
Eurobank is Autonomous’ top pick among Greek banks, with analysts highlighting the group’s international presence and growth prospects in Cyprus and Bulgaria.
During a meeting with the bank’s CFO, Haris Kokologiannis, management appeared particularly optimistic about the progress of overseas operations, noting that in Cyprus, the integration of Hellenic Bank is proceeding according to plan and the first synergies are already emerging.
Autonomous notes that synergies from the agreement are estimated at €140 million, while credit expansion in the Cypriot market returned to a strong trajectory as early as the first quarter. Staff reductions through a voluntary retirement program and the purchase of €1 billion in Cypriot securities are seen as signs that the restructuring plan is progressing faster than expected.
The outlook for Bulgaria was also particularly positive, as the country’s imminent accession to the Eurozone is boosting investment and demand for bank financing.
At the same time, Eurobank’s management also highlighted the recovery of mortgage lending in Greece. Although new mortgage loan disbursements increased by 40% in the first quarter, the bank estimates that it will take approximately three years for the portfolio to return to meaningful net growth, due to the ongoing deleveraging of existing loans.
National Bank of Greece: Capital flexibility and new distributions
For National Bank, Autonomous continues to see significant upside potential, highlighting the bank’s strong capital position and management’s flexibility to pursue new capital return initiatives for shareholders.
In a meeting with the bank’s CFO, Christos Christodoulou, management clarified that the business plan calls for a 60% payout ratio, without ruling out additional moves such as this year’s special €300 million share buyback program.
Autonomous notes that the bank retains significant flexibility even if the CET1 ratio falls below 16%, while a new AT1 issuance toward the end of 2026 or early 2027 cannot be ruled out.
Analysts also highlight management’s stance that National Bank continues to explore acquisition opportunities in banking operations and asset management, while placing greater emphasis on moves that will directly boost profitability.
Special mention is also made of Allianz Greece, with management believing that the minority stake creates better alignment of incentives compared to a simple bancassurance partnership model.
Autonomous also highlights the bank’s strong deposit profile, noting that every 25-basis-point increase in interest rates boosts net interest income by approximately €40 million.
Piraeus Bank: The Capital Injection Gamble
At Piraeus Bank, the discussion with CFO Theodoros Gnardellis focused primarily on the group’s capital trajectory following the decline of the CET1 ratio to 12.6% in the first quarter.
Management argued that this level essentially represents the lowest point for the bank’s capital and reiterated that synthetic risk securitizations will continue to be used as a key capital-building tool.
Autonomous notes that the bank views these specific tools as the cheapest way to generate CET1 capital, while management clarified that discussions with the regulator are not “negotiations,” but are based on plans with a high probability of success.
At the same time, Piraeus plans to accelerate sales of foreclosed properties, aiming for sales to exceed €270 million this year, up from approximately €210 million previously.
CrediaBank and Optima Bank are increasing competitive pressure
Of particular interest are Autonomous’ reports on smaller banks, with CrediaBank and Optima Bank rapidly increasing their share of new financing.
At a meeting with CrediaBank’s CFO Valeri Skouba, management presented a particularly aggressive growth plan following a €300 million capital increase, which boosted the CET1 ratio to 18%.
The bank primarily targets financing small and medium-sized enterprises, emphasizing the speed of approvals, as the disbursement time is limited to approximately one month. Management also expressed optimism regarding the prospects of HSBC Malta following the acquisition of its operations.
Similarly, Optima Bank CEO Dimitris Kyparissis presented particularly ambitious growth targets, such asa 24% return on equity, a €1.1 billion increase in loans, and a significant boost to deposits through interest rates higher than the market average.
Autonomous notes that the two banks hold a much larger share of new loans relative to their share of the total existing loan portfolio. According to data presented by the banks themselves, approximately one-third of new net loans in the Greek market in 2025 came from Optima Bank and CrediaBank, with Optima accounting for about 21% and CrediaBank for about 12%.
The economy continues to outperform
In discussions with the government’s economic team, the Bank of Greece, and the Hellenic Debt Management Agency (HDMA), the key message was that the Greek economy continues to outperform the rest of Europe, driven primarily by investment and fiscal discipline.
Autonomous notes that Greece achieved a primary surplus of 4.9% in 2025, significantly higher than the target, while the Ministry of Finance anticipates positive surprises for 2026 as well, with a target primary surplus of 2.8%.
Meanwhile, the Public Debt Management Agency estimates that the country’s public debt will fall below Italy’s this year, to 137% of GDP, while a significant reduction in the cash reserve is planned, from approximately €40 billion today to €15 billion by 2030.