Significant upside potential for Metlen, noting that the guidance for EBITDA of €1-1.15 billion in 2026 confirms the group’s return to fully normalized profitability following the pressures it faced in 2025 from the EPC sector. The U.S. bank maintains a buy rating and a price target of €52, levels that imply an upside of approximately 36% from the stock’s current levels.
Citi notes that the guidance is essentially in line with market estimates for EBITDA of €1.075 billion; however, they believe that rising aluminum prices could push results toward the upper end of the range. At the same time, they note that the absorption of the one-time negative impacts from EPC now creates a cleaner operating profile for the group.
The bank estimates that the core metals and energy sectors, which account for approximately 90% of Metalen’s EBITDA, will be the key drivers of growth in 2026. Specifically, the bank expects stable operating performance from power generation, renewables, and the aluminum business, with rising commodity prices supporting profitability.
Particular emphasis is placed on the outlook for aluminum from 2027 onward. According to Citi, supply issues in the Middle East have boosted both international prices and market premiums, a development that could significantly increase Metalen’s profits in the coming years. The U.S. bank forecasts that the aluminum sector’s EBITDA could reach €450 million in 2027, an increase of approximately 40% compared to 2025.
At the same time, Citi believes that the expansion into alumina and gallium further strengthens Metalen’s long-term investment narrative. It also notes that the company has already secured €118 million in financing for this specific investment, while the circular metallurgy pilot plant, expected to come online in 2026, could serve as a new catalyst for upward revisions to market estimates.
In its valuation scenarios, Citi sets the stock’s base fair value at €52, while in the optimistic scenario it raises the valuation to €80, seeing upside potential of 109%. In the negative scenario, the price is set at €28. The key assumptions for the positive scenario include faster growth in renewables, higher metal prices, and faster commercial growth in the cyclical metals business.
In terms of valuation, Citi forecasts that Metlen will trade at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.6x for 2026and 6.8x for 2027, while estimating that net profits will rise to €686 million in 2026 from €324 million in 2025. At the same time, it expects a dividend yield of 4.5% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.