GEK Terna’s first earnings report following the consolidation of Egnatia Odos is expected to confirm the group’s shift in focus toward concessions, according to Santander, which maintains its “outperform” rating and a price target of €53.
This valuation implies upside potential of approximately 30% from current levels of €40.60, with the firm believing that the market has not yet fully priced in the new earnings mix and the value of the motorway portfolio.
The analyst at the Spanish banking group notes that the first-quarter 2026 results will provide the first clear picture of the “new” GEK Terna, as Egnatia Odos will be included for the first time. Santander estimates that this asset could soon become the group’s most valuable, improving the quality of cash flows and the stability of profitability.
For the first quarter, the firm forecasts a 36% increase in adjusted operating profits, driven primarily by Egnatia Odos’s first contribution and the positive traffic outlook on the highways. Traffic on Attiki Odos, which accounts for 20% of the group’s fair value of investments, increased by 2.5% year-over-year, while on Egnatia Odos, which accounts for 19%, the increase reached 4.5%.
Santander forecasts revenue of €959 million for the quarter, down 3% year-over-year, but adjusted operating profit of €159 million, up 17%. Operating profit is estimated at €69 million, pre-tax profit at €33 million, and net profit attributable to shareholders at €24 million, up from €21 million last year.
The key message is that lower revenue does not negate the improvement in the quality of profitability. Concessions are expected to generate revenue of €163 million, up 38%, while motorways are estimated to reach €146 million, a 43% increase. Nea Odos and Kentriki Odos are expected to contribute €56 million, Attiki Odos €55 million, and Egnatia Odos €35 million.
The impact on operating profits is even more pronounced. Concessions are projected to generate €102 million, up from €75 million last year, while toll roads are expected to contribute €104 million, up from €76 million. Egnatia Odos is estimated to add €21 million in the first quarter, reinforcing the picture of a group achieving greater revenue predictability.
In the construction sector, Santander expects operating profits of €48 million, virtually unchanged year-over-year, with the backlog reaching record levels of €6.6 billion by the end of 2025. This outlook maintains visibility for the coming years, but the core investment story is now shifting toward infrastructure and concessions.
The firm expects net debt attributable to the parent company to rise to €415 million at the end of the first quarter, from €212 million at the end of 2025. The change is attributed to the acquisition of an additional 12.8% stake in EYDAP, seasonal working capital consumption in construction, and investments in projects such as the Hard Rock at Elliniko and the BOAK.
Despite the increase in borrowing, Santander anticipates gradual deleveraging. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is estimated at 6.3x for 2026, down from 6.8x in 2025, with a further decline to 5.7x in 2027 and 4.8x in 2028. For 2026, it forecasts revenue of €2.593 billion, operating profit of €675 million, and net profit of €151 million, while for 2028, it projects revenue of €2.934 billion, operating profit of €798 million, and net profit of €252 million.