UBS remainsa buyer on the four systemic banks, viewing the first quarter of 2026 as confirmation that the sector is on track, with room for upward revisions to earnings and capital returns.
Stephan Potgieter, in his May 27 report, marginally raises target prices and notes that Greek banks continue to combine credit expansion, stabilization in net interest margins, strong fees, and high dividends to shareholders.
The greatest upside potential is seen in Alpha Bank, for which UBS sets a target price of €4.90 and an upside potential of 32%. For Piraeus Bank , the target price is set at €11.20, with a 28% upside, for National Bank at €18.20, with a 26% upside, while forEurobank thetarget is €4.70, with a 21% upside. All four stocks maintain a buy recommendation .
The clearest message from the report comes from credit expansion. UBS notes that business loans increased by 3.9% on a quarterly basis and by 14.4% on an annual basis, in a first quarter that is typically seasonally weaker. National Bank stood out, with a 6.3% increase in business loans on a quarterly basis, while Piraeus followed with 4.4%. Alpha Bank posted a 2.4% increase and Eurobank 2.3%.
In terms of total performing loans in Greece, Piraeus remains in first place with €38.64 billion, followed by National Bank with €35.70 billion, Alpha Bank with €35.50 billion, and Eurobank with €33.06 billion. For the four major banks combined, performing loans totaled €142.89 billion, up 10.3% year-over-year.
UBS notes that Greek banks remain resilient in a higher interest rate environment, supported by investments in the Greek economy and diversified loan portfolios. Tourism accounts for approximately 6% of loans and shipping for approximately 8%, a factor that limits risk concentration and supports the firm’s positive outlook for the sector.
Valuations and individual picks
In terms of valuations, UBS sees the sector ata P/E of 8.1x for 2027, witha 13% discount relative to European banks. Alpha Bank is valued at a P/E of 7.7x for 2027 and a P/BV of 1.0x, Piraeus Bank at a P/E of 8.0x and a P/BV of 1.26x, National Bank at a P/E of 8.5x and a P/BV of 1.40x, and Eurobank at a P/E of 8.0x and a P/BV of 1.39x.
Alpha Bank appears to be the stock with the greatest upside potential, as it has underperformed the sector this year and is trading close to its tangible book value. Piraeus Bank, according to UBS, remains undervalued relative to its long-term prospects for improved profitability. National Bank stands out for its capital strength and potential for high dividends, with a CET1 ratio of 17.4% in the first quarter. Eurobank remains the bank with the highest estimated return on tangible equity, at 16.8% in 2026 and 18.0% in 2027.
Revenues, fees, and the role of acquisitions
In terms of net interest income, UBS singles out Eurobank, which benefits from its regional presence and a higher revenue base. The bank posted a 2.6% increase on a quarterly basis and a 4% increase on an annual basis. Net interest margins are beginning to stabilize, although Piraeus was the exception, with further compression in the first quarter.
Fee and commission income remains a key driver for the sector. UBS highlights Piraeus Bank, with a 32% year-over-year increase, and Alpha Bank, with a 30% increase. This is a critical point, as banks seek a greater contribution from recurring non-interest income, at a time when interest rate trends may gradually limit the benefit from net interest income.
A significant part of UBS’s positive outlook is linked to acquisitions. For Alpha Bank, the five additional acquisitions are estimated to add over 9% to earnings per share and over 1.2 percentage points to return on tangible equity by 2027.
For Piraeus Bank, UBS has updated its model to incorporate the acquisition of Ethniki Insurance, believing that the transaction could substantially boost commissions over the long term. For Eurobank, it has incorporated the acquisition of 80% ofEurolife as ofAugust 2026, while for National Bank, it has taken into account the bancassurance agreement withAllianz, which it characterizes as attractive.