Jefferies has set a new higher price target for Alpha Bank, raising it to €5.00 from €4.85, with a “Buy” rating and an upside potential of 28% from the €3.91 price used in its report. In their June 1, 2026, analysis, Alexander Demetriou and Joseph Dickerson raise their 2026 and 2027 earnings per share estimates by 3%, driven primarily by stronger commission income.
What is interesting in the case of Alpha Bank is that the upgrade is not based on a more aggressive assumption regarding net interest income, but on the gradual strengthening of revenue streams that require less capital. Jefferies believes that the bank continues to build a more diversified source of profitability, with recent acquisitions already bolstering the “commissions engine.”
In the first quarter of 2026, net fee and commission income rose 29% year-over-year to €140 million, up from €108 million in the same quarter last year. Excluding the impact of acquisitions, the increase was 20%, while including their impact, it reached nearly 30%. Jefferies notes that the strength was evident across all fee lines, despite the fact that the fourth quarter was boosted by approximately €10 million in non-recurring revenue.
The moves involving AstroBank, Alpha Trust, Altius, AXIA, and Flexfin are part of this strategy. According to the firm, these complementary transactions add scale and new opportunities, while they can increase earnings per share by more than 9%, with an impact of less than 100 basis points on equity. The full contribution is expected mainly from 2027, as 2026 is characterized as a transitional year.
The analysis is also noteworthy because Alpha Bank reaffirmed its guidance for reported earnings of €950 million in 2026, despite the extraordinary charges in the first quarter. The voluntary redundancy program cost €43 million, compared to the initial guidance of €30 million, due to higher employee participation, but is expected to yield annual savings of €15 million. Meanwhile, contributions from associates were lower than expected.
Net interest income increased by 5% year-over-year to €416 million, while total revenue rose by 7% to €587 million. Pre-provision profits stood at €358 million, up 2%, while net profit from continuing operations amounted to €225 million. Reported after-tax earnings declined to €182 million, primarily due to extraordinary items.
Jefferies forecasts earnings per share of €0.42 for 2026, €0.54 for 2027, and €0.61 for 2028. Based on these estimates, the stock is trading at a P/E of 9.2x for 2026, 7.2x for 2027, and 6.4x for 2028, while dividends per share are estimated at €0.13, €0.17, and €0.19, respectively.
In the valuation scenarios, the base case leads to €5.00, the upside case to €5.80, with a 48% upside, and the downside case to €2.90, i.e., 26% lower. According to the firm, the bank maintains a strong capital base, with a CET1 ratio of 14.7% in the first quarter, while Jefferies sees the stock as remaining attractively valued, with additional support from dividends and share buybacks.